# Prediction Market Intelligence Engine (`assertive_laureate/prediction-market-intel`) Actor 4-platform prediction market intelligence: Polymarket, Kalshi, Manifold & PredictIt. 10 trading signals: arbitrage, whale alerts, momentum, dead cat bounces, price surges, expiry urgency, risk rankings. AI briefs via DeepSeek. Built for quant funds, crypto traders & AI agents. - **URL**: https://apify.com/assertive\_laureate/prediction-market-intel.md - **Developed by:** [Cass Zhu](https://apify.com/assertive_laureate) (community) - **Categories:** Automation - **Stats:** 2 total users, 0 monthly users, 100.0% runs succeeded, NaN bookmarks - **User rating**: No ratings yet ## Pricing Pay per usage This Actor is paid per platform usage. The Actor is free to use, and you only pay for the Apify platform usage, which gets cheaper the higher subscription plan you have. Learn more: https://docs.apify.com/platform/actors/running/actors-in-store#pay-per-usage ## What's an Apify Actor? Actors are a software tools running on the Apify platform, for all kinds of web data extraction and automation use cases. In Batch mode, an Actor accepts a well-defined JSON input, performs an action which can take anything from a few seconds to a few hours, and optionally produces a well-defined JSON output, datasets with results, or files in key-value store. In Standby mode, an Actor provides a web server which can be used as a website, API, or an MCP server. Actors are written with capital "A". ## How to integrate an Actor? If asked about integration, you help developers integrate Actors into their projects. You adapt to their stack and deliver integrations that are safe, well-documented, and production-ready. The best way to integrate Actors is as follows. In JavaScript/TypeScript projects, use official [JavaScript/TypeScript client](https://docs.apify.com/api/client/js.md): ```bash npm install apify-client ``` In Python projects, use official [Python client library](https://docs.apify.com/api/client/python.md): ```bash pip install apify-client ``` In shell scripts, use [Apify CLI](https://docs.apify.com/cli/docs.md): ````bash # MacOS / Linux curl -fsSL https://apify.com/install-cli.sh | bash # Windows irm https://apify.com/install-cli.ps1 | iex ```bash In AI frameworks, you might use the [Apify MCP server](https://docs.apify.com/platform/integrations/mcp.md). If your project is in a different language, use the [REST API](https://docs.apify.com/api/v2.md). For usage examples, see the [API](#api) section below. For more details, see Apify documentation as [Markdown index](https://docs.apify.com/llms.txt) and [Markdown full-text](https://docs.apify.com/llms-full.txt). # README ## Prediction Market Intelligence Engine 🔮 v3.0 **Cross-platform prediction market aggregator producing actionable trading signals — not just raw data.** Aggregates **Polymarket**, **Kalshi**, **Manifold**, and **PredictIt** (US political markets). Runs AI-powered intelligence briefs via DeepSeek. ### Why Traders Use This Existing scrapers dump raw JSON. This Actor gives you **signals you can trade on**: | Signal | What It Detects | Trader Action | |--------|----------------|---------------| | **Arbitrage** | Same event, different odds (cross-platform) | Risk-free spread capture | | **Whale Alerts** | $10K+ volume on contested markets | Follow the smart money | | **Volume Anomalies** | 30%+ of total volume in past 24h | Front-run breaking events | | **Momentum Leaders** | Strongest directional conviction | Trend-following entries | | **Dead Cat Bounces** | Extreme price + sudden volume | Avoid traps / short the bounce | | **Price Surgers** | 4%+ move in 1h or 8%+ in 24h | Momentum trading | | **Expiry Urgency** | Markets resolving within 7 days | Last-minute positioning | | **Risk Rankings** | Composite risk score (price + volume + expiry) | Position sizing | ### What's New in v3.0 - **PredictIt** — largest US political prediction market added - **Smart filtering** — removes dead markets (zero volume/liquidity) - **Risk scoring** — composite risk per market (price extremity × volume × expiry) - **Expiry urgency** — flag markets resolving this week - **Upgraded AI brief** — bolder, more actionable, no hedging ### Input Parameters | Parameter | Type | Default | Description | |-----------|------|---------|-------------| | `platforms` | array | `["polymarket","kalshi","manifold","predictit"]` | Platforms to query | | `categories` | array | `["politics","crypto","sports","tech"]` | Polymarket categories | | `maxMarketsPerPlatform` | integer | `200` | Results per platform (50-500) | | `includeRawData` | boolean | `false` | Include full raw market listings | | `includeSignals` | boolean | `true` | Compute trading signals | | `kalshiApiKey` | string | — | Kalshi API key (optional) | | `deepseekApiKey` | string | — | Enables AI intelligence briefs | ### Output Example ```json { "scrapedAt": "2026-05-16T12:00:00Z", "version": "3.0", "totalMarkets": 450, "platforms": ["polymarket", "kalshi", "manifold", "predictit"], "signals": { "crossPlatformArbitrage": [ {"question": "Will BTC hit $150K?", "spreadPercent": 8.2, "platformA": {"name": "polymarket", "price": 0.72}, "platformB": {"name": "kalshi", "price": 0.66}} ], "whaleAlerts": [ {"question": "2028 Presidential Election", "platform": "polymarket", "volume24h": 428000, "yesPrice": 0.12} ], "priceSurgers": [ {"question": "Fed rate cut June 2026", "direction": "surging", "change24h": 0.23, "magnitude": "large"} ], "expiryUrgency": [ {"question": "Will SpaceX launch this week?", "daysToExpiry": 1, "urgency": "critical"} ], "riskRankings": [ {"question": "AI takeover by 2030", "riskScore": 0.92, "yesPrice": 0.03} ] }, "categorySentiment": {"crypto": {"sentiment": "bullish", "avgYesPrice": 0.58}, "politics": {"sentiment": "neutral"}}, "aiBrief": "Crypto markets show bullish consensus... top arb: Polymarket vs Kalshi on BTC $150K with 8.2% spread..." } ```` ### Pricing (Pay-Per-Event) | Event | Price | Triggers | |-------|-------|----------| | `result` | $0.01/run | Every Actor execution | | `intelligence-brief` | $0.03/brief | AI brief generated (DeepSeek key required) | Full scan costs ~$0.04/run. Compare to manual monitoring across 4 platforms. ### Technical Notes - Pure API calls — no headless browsers, fast and reliable - Concurrent async fetching across all 4 platforms - Normalized cross-platform data model - Runs on Apify Free tier ($5/month credit = 125+ runs) ### Use Cases - **Quant funds** — Signal feed into trading models - **Crypto traders** — Cross-platform sentiment for portfolio decisions - **Election analysts** — PredictIt + Polymarket odds comparison - **News desks** — Identify events markets are pricing in - **Arbitrage bots** — Automated cross-platform opportunity detection - **AI trading agents** — Structured market intelligence for autonomous execution *** **Markets price the future. Trade the signals.** ## Actor input object example ```json {} ``` # API You can run this Actor programmatically using our API. Below are code examples in JavaScript, Python, and CLI, as well as the OpenAPI specification and MCP server setup. ## JavaScript example ```javascript import { ApifyClient } from 'apify-client'; // Initialize the ApifyClient with your Apify API token // Replace the '' with your token const client = new ApifyClient({ token: '', }); // Prepare Actor input const input = {}; // Run the Actor and wait for it to finish const run = await client.actor("assertive_laureate/prediction-market-intel").call(input); // Fetch and print Actor results from the run's dataset (if any) console.log('Results from dataset'); console.log(`💾 Check your data here: https://console.apify.com/storage/datasets/${run.defaultDatasetId}`); const { items } = await client.dataset(run.defaultDatasetId).listItems(); items.forEach((item) => { console.dir(item); }); // 📚 Want to learn more 📖? Go to → https://docs.apify.com/api/client/js/docs ``` ## Python example ```python from apify_client import ApifyClient # Initialize the ApifyClient with your Apify API token # Replace '' with your token. client = ApifyClient("") # Prepare the Actor input run_input = {} # Run the Actor and wait for it to finish run = client.actor("assertive_laureate/prediction-market-intel").call(run_input=run_input) # Fetch and print Actor results from the run's dataset (if there are any) print("💾 Check your data here: https://console.apify.com/storage/datasets/" + run["defaultDatasetId"]) for item in client.dataset(run["defaultDatasetId"]).iterate_items(): print(item) # 📚 Want to learn more 📖? Go to → https://docs.apify.com/api/client/python/docs/quick-start ``` ## CLI example ```bash echo '{}' | apify call assertive_laureate/prediction-market-intel --silent --output-dataset ``` ## MCP server setup ```json { "mcpServers": { "apify": { "command": "npx", "args": [ "mcp-remote", "https://mcp.apify.com/?tools=assertive_laureate/prediction-market-intel", "--header", "Authorization: Bearer " ] } } } ``` ## OpenAPI specification ```json { "openapi": "3.0.1", "info": { "title": "Prediction Market Intelligence Engine", "description": "4-platform prediction market intelligence: Polymarket, Kalshi, Manifold & PredictIt. 10 trading signals: arbitrage, whale alerts, momentum, dead cat bounces, price surges, expiry urgency, risk rankings. AI briefs via DeepSeek. Built for quant funds, crypto traders & AI agents.", "version": "3.0", "x-build-id": "8EOFuJ0e6JcJ2YR1f" }, "servers": [ { "url": "https://api.apify.com/v2" } ], "paths": { "/acts/assertive_laureate~prediction-market-intel/run-sync-get-dataset-items": { "post": { "operationId": "run-sync-get-dataset-items-assertive_laureate-prediction-market-intel", "x-openai-isConsequential": false, "summary": "Executes an Actor, waits for its completion, and returns Actor's dataset items in response.", "tags": [ "Run Actor" ], "requestBody": { "required": true, "content": { "application/json": { "schema": { "$ref": "#/components/schemas/inputSchema" } } } }, "parameters": [ { "name": "token", "in": "query", "required": true, "schema": { "type": "string" }, "description": "Enter your Apify token here" } ], "responses": { "200": { "description": "OK" } } } }, "/acts/assertive_laureate~prediction-market-intel/runs": { "post": { "operationId": "runs-sync-assertive_laureate-prediction-market-intel", "x-openai-isConsequential": false, "summary": "Executes an Actor and returns information about the initiated run in response.", "tags": [ "Run Actor" ], "requestBody": { "required": true, "content": { "application/json": { "schema": { "$ref": "#/components/schemas/inputSchema" } } } }, "parameters": [ { "name": "token", "in": "query", "required": true, "schema": { "type": "string" }, "description": "Enter your Apify token here" } ], "responses": { "200": { "description": "OK", "content": { "application/json": { "schema": { "$ref": "#/components/schemas/runsResponseSchema" } } } } } } }, "/acts/assertive_laureate~prediction-market-intel/run-sync": { "post": { "operationId": "run-sync-assertive_laureate-prediction-market-intel", "x-openai-isConsequential": false, "summary": "Executes an Actor, waits for completion, and returns the OUTPUT from Key-value store in response.", "tags": [ "Run Actor" ], "requestBody": { "required": true, "content": { "application/json": { "schema": { "$ref": "#/components/schemas/inputSchema" } } } }, "parameters": [ { "name": "token", "in": "query", "required": true, "schema": { "type": "string" }, "description": "Enter your Apify token here" } ], "responses": { "200": { "description": "OK" } } } } }, "components": { "schemas": { "inputSchema": { "type": "object", "properties": {} }, "runsResponseSchema": { "type": "object", "properties": { "data": { "type": "object", "properties": { "id": { "type": "string" }, "actId": { "type": "string" }, "userId": { "type": "string" }, "startedAt": { "type": "string", "format": "date-time", "example": "2025-01-08T00:00:00.000Z" }, "finishedAt": { "type": "string", "format": "date-time", "example": "2025-01-08T00:00:00.000Z" }, "status": { "type": "string", "example": "READY" }, "meta": { "type": "object", "properties": { "origin": { "type": "string", "example": "API" }, "userAgent": { "type": "string" } } }, "stats": { "type": "object", "properties": { "inputBodyLen": { "type": "integer", "example": 2000 }, "rebootCount": { "type": "integer", "example": 0 }, "restartCount": { "type": "integer", "example": 0 }, "resurrectCount": { "type": "integer", "example": 0 }, "computeUnits": { "type": "integer", "example": 0 } } }, "options": { "type": "object", "properties": { "build": { "type": "string", "example": "latest" }, "timeoutSecs": { "type": "integer", "example": 300 }, "memoryMbytes": { "type": "integer", "example": 1024 }, "diskMbytes": { "type": "integer", "example": 2048 } } }, "buildId": { "type": "string" }, "defaultKeyValueStoreId": { "type": "string" }, "defaultDatasetId": { "type": "string" }, "defaultRequestQueueId": { "type": "string" }, "buildNumber": { "type": "string", "example": "1.0.0" }, "containerUrl": { "type": "string" }, "usage": { "type": "object", "properties": { "ACTOR_COMPUTE_UNITS": { "type": "integer", "example": 0 }, "DATASET_READS": { "type": "integer", "example": 0 }, "DATASET_WRITES": { "type": "integer", "example": 0 }, "KEY_VALUE_STORE_READS": { "type": "integer", "example": 0 }, "KEY_VALUE_STORE_WRITES": { "type": "integer", "example": 1 }, "KEY_VALUE_STORE_LISTS": { "type": "integer", "example": 0 }, "REQUEST_QUEUE_READS": { "type": "integer", "example": 0 }, "REQUEST_QUEUE_WRITES": { "type": "integer", "example": 0 }, "DATA_TRANSFER_INTERNAL_GBYTES": { "type": "integer", "example": 0 }, "DATA_TRANSFER_EXTERNAL_GBYTES": { "type": "integer", "example": 0 }, "PROXY_RESIDENTIAL_TRANSFER_GBYTES": { "type": "integer", "example": 0 }, "PROXY_SERPS": { "type": "integer", "example": 0 } } }, "usageTotalUsd": { "type": "number", "example": 0.00005 }, "usageUsd": { "type": "object", "properties": { "ACTOR_COMPUTE_UNITS": { "type": "integer", "example": 0 }, "DATASET_READS": { "type": "integer", "example": 0 }, "DATASET_WRITES": { "type": "integer", "example": 0 }, "KEY_VALUE_STORE_READS": { "type": "integer", "example": 0 }, "KEY_VALUE_STORE_WRITES": { "type": "number", "example": 0.00005 }, "KEY_VALUE_STORE_LISTS": { "type": "integer", "example": 0 }, "REQUEST_QUEUE_READS": { "type": "integer", "example": 0 }, "REQUEST_QUEUE_WRITES": { "type": "integer", "example": 0 }, "DATA_TRANSFER_INTERNAL_GBYTES": { "type": "integer", "example": 0 }, "DATA_TRANSFER_EXTERNAL_GBYTES": { "type": "integer", "example": 0 }, "PROXY_RESIDENTIAL_TRANSFER_GBYTES": { "type": "integer", "example": 0 }, "PROXY_SERPS": { "type": "integer", "example": 0 } } } } } } } } } } ```