# MLB Value Bets vs Live Kalshi Prediction Market Prices

**Use case:** 

Monte Carlo playoff odds for all 30 MLB teams compared against live Kalshi contract prices. De-vigged edge, fee-adjusted EV and Kelly sizing.

## Input

```json
{
  "iterations": 20000,
  "regressionGames": 70,
  "pythagoreanWeight": 0.6,
  "homeFieldAdvantage": 0.16,
  "strengthUncertainty": 0.1,
  "edgeThreshold": 0.03,
  "bankroll": 1000,
  "maxPerPositionPct": 0.02,
  "maxTotalExposurePct": 0.06,
  "marketProbabilities": [
    {
      "team": "Seattle Mariners",
      "market": "playoff",
      "impliedProbability": 0.48
    },
    {
      "team": "Milwaukee Brewers",
      "market": "division",
      "impliedProbability": 0.55
    },
    {
      "team": "New York Mets",
      "market": "playoff",
      "impliedProbability": 0.62
    },
    {
      "team": "Texas Rangers",
      "market": "playoff",
      "impliedProbability": 0.35
    },
    {
      "team": "San Diego Padres",
      "market": "division",
      "impliedProbability": 0.28
    },
    {
      "team": "Boston Red Sox",
      "market": "playoff",
      "impliedProbability": 0.41
    }
  ]
}
```

## Output

```json
{
  "team": {
    "label": "Team",
    "format": "text"
  },
  "fairPlayoffProbability": {
    "label": "Model playoff %",
    "format": "number"
  },
  "marketPlayoffProbability": {
    "label": "Market playoff %",
    "format": "number"
  },
  "playoffEdge": {
    "label": "Playoff edge",
    "format": "number"
  },
  "estimatedFee": {
    "label": "Fee per contract",
    "format": "number"
  },
  "netEV": {
    "label": "Net EV",
    "format": "number"
  },
  "fairDivisionProbability": {
    "label": "Model division %",
    "format": "number"
  },
  "hasValue": {
    "label": "Value",
    "format": "boolean"
  },
  "recommendation": {
    "label": "Recommendation",
    "format": "text"
  }
}
```

## About this Actor

This example demonstrates how to use [MLB Playoff Odds Monte Carlo Simulator](https://apify.com/commodus67/mlb-playoff-odds-monte-carlo) with a specific input configuration. Visit the [Actor detail page](https://apify.com/commodus67/mlb-playoff-odds-monte-carlo) to learn more, explore other use cases, and run it yourself.