# NFL Futures Bet Sizing with Quarter Kelly

**Use case:** 

Size NFL futures positions with quarter-Kelly on a $5,000 bankroll, capped at 1% per bet and 4% total exposure. Bets fill best-edge-first; qualifying bets beyond the ceiling come back with a zero stake and a capped flag, so you can see exactly what was dropped and why.

## Input

```json
{
  "iterations": 20000,
  "regressionGames": 6,
  "pythagoreanWeight": 0.65,
  "homeFieldAdvantage": 0.2,
  "strengthUncertainty": 0.16,
  "tieProbability": 0.004,
  "edgeThreshold": 0.05,
  "bankroll": 5000,
  "maxPerPositionPct": 0.01,
  "maxTotalExposurePct": 0.04,
  "marketProbabilities": [
    {
      "team": "Kansas City Chiefs",
      "market": "playoff",
      "impliedProbability": 0.82
    },
    {
      "team": "Buffalo Bills",
      "market": "playoff",
      "impliedProbability": 0.78
    },
    {
      "team": "San Francisco 49ers",
      "market": "playoff",
      "impliedProbability": 0.7
    },
    {
      "team": "Carolina Panthers",
      "market": "playoff",
      "impliedProbability": 0.3
    },
    {
      "team": "New York Giants",
      "market": "playoff",
      "impliedProbability": 0.28
    },
    {
      "team": "Chicago Bears",
      "market": "division",
      "impliedProbability": 0.18
    }
  ]
}
```

## Output

```json
{
  "team": {
    "label": "Team"
  },
  "fairPlayoffProbability": {
    "label": "Model playoff %"
  },
  "marketPlayoffProbability": {
    "label": "Market playoff %"
  },
  "playoffEdge": {
    "label": "Playoff edge"
  },
  "hasValue": {
    "label": "Value"
  },
  "kellyFractionUncapped": {
    "label": "Kelly uncapped"
  },
  "suggestedFractionOfBankroll": {
    "label": "Stake % of bankroll"
  },
  "suggestedStake": {
    "label": "Suggested stake"
  },
  "cappedByPortfolioLimit": {
    "label": "Capped"
  }
}
```

## About this Actor

This example demonstrates how to use [NFL Playoff Odds API - Monte Carlo Simulator](https://apify.com/commodus67/nfl-playoff-odds-api-monte-carlo-simulator.md) with a specific input configuration. Visit the [Actor detail page](https://apify.com/commodus67/nfl-playoff-odds-api-monte-carlo-simulator.md) to learn more, explore other use cases, and run it yourself.


## How to integrate an Actor?

If asked about integration, you help developers integrate Actors into their projects.
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This Task's input is already configured above — use it as-is rather than inventing a new one.

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For full API examples (JavaScript, Python, CLI, MCP, OpenAPI), see this Task's Actor page: https://apify.com/commodus67/nfl-playoff-odds-api-monte-carlo-simulator.md

For more details, see Apify documentation as [Markdown index](https://docs.apify.com/llms.txt) and [Markdown full-text](https://docs.apify.com/llms-full.txt).