# NFL Value Bets vs Sportsbook Playoff Futures

**Use case:** 

Compare the model against bookmaker playoff futures. Supply the implied probability for any team and the run returns the gap in percentage points, flags the teams that clear your edge threshold, and sizes the bet with quarter-Kelly. The prices here are samples: replace them with your own book's numbers.

## Input

```json
{
  "iterations": 20000,
  "regressionGames": 6,
  "pythagoreanWeight": 0.65,
  "homeFieldAdvantage": 0.2,
  "strengthUncertainty": 0.16,
  "tieProbability": 0.004,
  "edgeThreshold": 0.05,
  "bankroll": 1000,
  "maxPerPositionPct": 0.02,
  "maxTotalExposurePct": 0.06,
  "marketProbabilities": [
    {
      "team": "Kansas City Chiefs",
      "market": "playoff",
      "impliedProbability": 0.82
    },
    {
      "team": "Buffalo Bills",
      "market": "playoff",
      "impliedProbability": 0.78
    },
    {
      "team": "San Francisco 49ers",
      "market": "playoff",
      "impliedProbability": 0.7
    },
    {
      "team": "Carolina Panthers",
      "market": "playoff",
      "impliedProbability": 0.3
    },
    {
      "team": "New York Giants",
      "market": "playoff",
      "impliedProbability": 0.28
    },
    {
      "team": "Chicago Bears",
      "market": "division",
      "impliedProbability": 0.18
    }
  ]
}
```

## Output

```json
{
  "team": {
    "label": "Team"
  },
  "fairPlayoffProbability": {
    "label": "Model playoff %"
  },
  "marketPlayoffProbability": {
    "label": "Market playoff %"
  },
  "playoffEdge": {
    "label": "Playoff edge"
  },
  "hasValue": {
    "label": "Value"
  },
  "kellyFractionUncapped": {
    "label": "Kelly uncapped"
  },
  "suggestedFractionOfBankroll": {
    "label": "Stake % of bankroll"
  },
  "suggestedStake": {
    "label": "Suggested stake"
  },
  "cappedByPortfolioLimit": {
    "label": "Capped"
  }
}
```

## About this Actor

This example demonstrates how to use [NFL Playoff Odds API - Monte Carlo Simulator](https://apify.com/commodus67/nfl-playoff-odds-api-monte-carlo-simulator.md) with a specific input configuration. Visit the [Actor detail page](https://apify.com/commodus67/nfl-playoff-odds-api-monte-carlo-simulator.md) to learn more, explore other use cases, and run it yourself.


## How to integrate an Actor?

If asked about integration, you help developers integrate Actors into their projects.
You adapt to their stack and deliver integrations that are safe, well-documented, and production-ready.
This Task's input is already configured above — use it as-is rather than inventing a new one.

- **AI agents and MCP clients** — the [Apify MCP server](https://docs.apify.com/integrations/mcp.md) at `https://mcp.apify.com` (remote, streamable HTTP, OAuth on first use).
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For full API examples (JavaScript, Python, CLI, MCP, OpenAPI), see this Task's Actor page: https://apify.com/commodus67/nfl-playoff-odds-api-monte-carlo-simulator.md

For more details, see Apify documentation as [Markdown index](https://docs.apify.com/llms.txt) and [Markdown full-text](https://docs.apify.com/llms-full.txt).