# NHL Value Bets vs Live Kalshi Prices

**Use case:** 

Compares the model's playoff probability for each NHL team against the live Kalshi contract, strips the overround out of the market price, and reports the edge, the expected value after Kalshi's fees and a quarter-Kelly stake capped by position and portfolio limits. Before the league has played ten games per team, edges are still shown in full but no row is allowed to claim VALUE.

## Input

```json
{
  "iterations": 20000,
  "regressionGames": 25,
  "pythagoreanWeight": 0.6,
  "homeIceAdvantage": 0.12,
  "strengthUncertainty": 0.1,
  "overtimeProbability": 0.23,
  "overtimeDamping": 0.5,
  "priorCarryover": 0.6,
  "minGamesPlayedForValue": 10,
  "includeDivisionMarkets": true,
  "edgeThreshold": 0.05,
  "bankroll": 1000,
  "maxPerPositionPct": 0.02,
  "maxTotalExposurePct": 0.06,
  "marketProbabilities": []
}
```

## Output

```json
{
  "team": {
    "label": "Team"
  },
  "fairPlayoffProbability": {
    "label": "Model playoff %"
  },
  "marketPlayoffProbability": {
    "label": "Market playoff %"
  },
  "playoffEdge": {
    "label": "Edge"
  },
  "netEV": {
    "label": "EV after fees"
  },
  "recommendation": {
    "label": "Verdict"
  },
  "kellyFractionUncapped": {
    "label": "Kelly uncapped"
  },
  "suggestedFractionOfBankroll": {
    "label": "Stake % of bankroll"
  },
  "suggestedStake": {
    "label": "Suggested stake"
  },
  "cappedByPortfolioLimit": {
    "label": "Capped"
  }
}
```

## About this Actor

This example demonstrates how to use [NHL Playoff Odds API — Monte Carlo Simulator & Value Bets](https://apify.com/commodus67/nhl-playoff-odds-monte-carlo.md) with a specific input configuration. Visit the [Actor detail page](https://apify.com/commodus67/nhl-playoff-odds-monte-carlo.md) to learn more, explore other use cases, and run it yourself.


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This Task's input is already configured above — use it as-is rather than inventing a new one.

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For full API examples (JavaScript, Python, CLI, MCP, OpenAPI), see this Task's Actor page: https://apify.com/commodus67/nhl-playoff-odds-monte-carlo.md

For more details, see Apify documentation as [Markdown index](https://docs.apify.com/llms.txt) and [Markdown full-text](https://docs.apify.com/llms-full.txt).