# Cross-Platform Arbitrage & Resolution Rules Lawyer (`davidcondrey/wl-arbitrage-lawyer`) Actor

Finds fine-print divergences between two prediction markets (e.g. Polymarket vs Kalshi), prices basis risk, and returns ARBITRAGE_SAFE / BASIS_RISK_TRAP / NO_EDGE with Kelly hedge sizing. Prices are USD per share (0-1).

- **URL**: https://apify.com/davidcondrey/wl-arbitrage-lawyer.md
- **Developed by:** [WritersLogic](https://apify.com/davidcondrey) (community)
- **Categories:** AI, Agents, Business
- **Security:** Limited permissions
- **Stats:** 2 total users, 1 monthly users, 100.0% runs succeeded, 0 bookmarks
- **User rating**: No ratings yet

## Pricing

$940.00 / 1,000 cross-platform arbitrage & resolution rules lawyer runs

This Actor is paid per event. You are not charged for the Apify platform usage, but only a fixed price for specific events.

Learn more: https://docs.apify.com/actors/running/actors-in-store.md#pay-per-event

## What's an Apify Actor?

An Actor is a serverless cloud program that runs on the Apify platform. It has two run modes.
In Batch mode, an Actor accepts a well-defined JSON input, performs an action which can take anything from a few seconds to a few hours,
and optionally produces a well-defined JSON output, datasets with results, or files in key-value store.
In Standby mode, an Actor provides a web server which can be used as a website, API, or an MCP server.

Apify vocabulary and the platform model are defined once, in the agent quickstart at https://apify.com/agents.md.

## How to integrate an Actor?

If asked about integration, you help developers integrate Actors into their projects.
You adapt to their stack and deliver integrations that are safe, well-documented, and production-ready.

Do not guess an integration path. Every one of them is in the agent quickstart at https://apify.com/agents.md: the Apify MCP server, Agent Skills with the Apify CLI, the JavaScript and Python clients, the REST API, and the account-free path for an agent with no human to sign in. It also carries the rule on stating cost before the first paid run.

For examples already wired to this Actor's own input schema, see the [API](#api) section below.

Each client library has reference documentation the quickstart does not restate: [JavaScript/TypeScript](https://docs.apify.com/api/client/js/docs.md) (`npm install apify-client`) and [Python](https://docs.apify.com/api/client/python/docs.md) (`pip install apify-client`).

# README

## Cross-Platform Arbitrage & Resolution Rules Lawyer

Finds fine-print divergences between two prediction markets (e.g. Polymarket vs Kalshi), prices basis risk after fees, and returns verdict.action ARBITRAGE_SAFE / LOW_ANNUALIZED_YIELD / BASIS_RISK_TRAP / NO_EDGE / INSUFFICIENT_EVIDENCE with edge in bps, the probability both legs lose, days to resolution, annualized return and Kelly hedge size capped by top-of-book depth. Each market can be given as a Polymarket slug or URL or a Kalshi ticker (rules, best asks and per-leg fees are read live) or as pasted rules and prices (USD per share, 0-1). Every cited clause is checked verbatim against the rules you supplied. If the rules analysis fails after live prices were read, you still get the signed price math as a partial result. Not financial advice.

Every result is a **signed, verifiable answer**:

- a W3C Verifiable Credential 2.0, signed with `eddsa-jcs-2022` by `did:web:agents.writerslogic.com`;
- a C2PA-style manifest that lists every source the agent read, each with its SHA-256;
- an EIP-191 co-signature over the same digest.

Change one byte and verification fails, so you can pass the result to a client, an auditor or another agent and they can check it without trusting you or us.

### How to use Cross-Platform Arbitrage & Resolution Rules Lawyer

1. Fill in the input form. Required fields are marked; the form opens with a working example.
2. Start the run.
3. Read the result in the **Output** tab, or download the dataset as JSON. The full signed envelope is also saved as the `OUTPUT` record in the key-value store.

### Input

| Field | Required | Description |
|---|---|---|
| `marketA` | yes |  |
| `marketB` | yes |  |
| `minEdgeBps` | no | Default 100 (1%). |
| `bankrollUsd` | no | Used to convert the Kelly fraction to USD. |
| `minAnnualizedReturnPct` | no | Minimum annualized risk-adjusted return, in percent, for verdict.action ARBITRAGE_SAFE (default 5). Below it the action is LOW_ANNUALIZED_YIELD. Applied only when both end dates are known. |

Example input:

```json
{
  "marketA": {
    "platform": "Polymarket",
    "title": "Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2027?",
    "resolutionRules": "This market will resolve to Yes if any Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT between Jan 1, 2027 00:00 and Dec 31, 2027 23:59 ET has a final High price of $150,000 or higher. Otherwise it resolves to No. The resolution source is Binance BTC/USDT with the 1m candle selected.",
    "yesPrice": 0.31,
    "noPrice": 0.7,
    "feeBps": 0,
    "endDate": "2027-12-31T23:59:00-05:00"
  },
  "marketB": {
    "platform": "Kalshi",
    "title": "Bitcoin price at the end of 2027: above $150,000?",
    "resolutionRules": "If the CF Benchmarks BRTI price at 5:00 PM EST on December 31, 2027 is above $150,000, then the market resolves to Yes. Otherwise it resolves to No. The Source Agency is CF Benchmarks; the value is the average BRTI over the 60 seconds before the expiration time.",
    "yesPrice": 0.22,
    "noPrice": 0.79,
    "yesFeeBps": 546,
    "noFeeBps": 147,
    "endDate": "2027-12-31T17:00:00-05:00"
  },
  "minEdgeBps": 100,
  "bankrollUsd": 10000
}
```

### Output

```json
{
  "agent": "arbitrage-lawyer",
  "priceUsd": 0.94,
  "data": { "...": "the agent's answer" },
  "_provenance": { "credential": {}, "manifest": {}, "ethSignature": "0x..." }
}
```

To check a result for free, POST `{ "data": ..., "_provenance": ... }` to `https://agents.writerslogic.com/api/v1/verify-provenance`, or verify it offline against the public key in the [DID document](https://agents.writerslogic.com/.well-known/did.json).

### Pricing

**$0.94 per successful run**, charged once and only after the agent returns its answer. If the input is rejected or the agent fails, you are not charged for the call.

### Use it from code or an AI assistant

- Apify API and integrations: call this Actor from Make, Zapier, n8n, LangChain or the Apify API like any other Actor.
- MCP: `npx -y @writerslogic/ai-agents-mcp` exposes this agent and the rest of the hub as tools.
- x402: the same agent is available at `POST https://agents.writerslogic.com/api/v1/arbitrage-lawyer`, paid per call in USDC on Base.

### More verifiable agents

- [Prediction Market Analyzer](https://apify.com/davidcondrey/wl-market-predictor)
- [Medical Bill Upcoding & Overcharge Slasher](https://apify.com/davidcondrey/wl-medical-bill-auditor)
- [Dark Pattern Contract & Subscription Exit Lawyer](https://apify.com/davidcondrey/wl-contract-terminator)
- [Patent Design-Around & Freedom-to-Operate Architect](https://apify.com/davidcondrey/wl-patent-design-around)
- [Prediction-Market Clarification Impact Pricer](https://apify.com/davidcondrey/wl-clarification-impact)
- [UMA Dispute EV Desk](https://apify.com/davidcondrey/wl-dispute-ev)
- [All agents in one Actor](https://apify.com/davidcondrey/verifiable-ai-agents)

### FAQ

**Who runs this?** [WritersLogic](https://writerslogic.com/agents). The agent runs on the WritersLogic Verifiable AI Agent Hub; this Actor sends your input there and returns the signed result.

**Is my input stored?** The Actor stores your result in your own Apify storage. Ask before sending confidential documents; the hub is a third-party service from your point of view.

# Actor input Schema

## `marketA` (type: `object`):

marketA

## `marketB` (type: `object`):

marketB

## `minEdgeBps` (type: `string`):

Default 100 (1%). (a number)

## `bankrollUsd` (type: `string`):

Used to convert the Kelly fraction to USD. (a number)

## `minAnnualizedReturnPct` (type: `string`):

Minimum annualized risk-adjusted return, in percent, for verdict.action ARBITRAGE_SAFE (default 5). Below it the action is LOW_ANNUALIZED_YIELD. Applied only when both end dates are known. (a number)

## Actor input object example

```json
{
  "marketA": {
    "platform": "Polymarket",
    "title": "Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2027?",
    "resolutionRules": "This market will resolve to Yes if any Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT between Jan 1, 2027 00:00 and Dec 31, 2027 23:59 ET has a final High price of $150,000 or higher. Otherwise it resolves to No. The resolution source is Binance BTC/USDT with the 1m candle selected.",
    "yesPrice": 0.31,
    "noPrice": 0.7,
    "feeBps": 0,
    "endDate": "2027-12-31T23:59:00-05:00"
  },
  "marketB": {
    "platform": "Kalshi",
    "title": "Bitcoin price at the end of 2027: above $150,000?",
    "resolutionRules": "If the CF Benchmarks BRTI price at 5:00 PM EST on December 31, 2027 is above $150,000, then the market resolves to Yes. Otherwise it resolves to No. The Source Agency is CF Benchmarks; the value is the average BRTI over the 60 seconds before the expiration time.",
    "yesPrice": 0.22,
    "noPrice": 0.79,
    "yesFeeBps": 546,
    "noFeeBps": 147,
    "endDate": "2027-12-31T17:00:00-05:00"
  },
  "minEdgeBps": "100",
  "bankrollUsd": "10000"
}
```

# Actor output Schema

## `results` (type: `string`):

One dataset item per call: the agent id, the price charged, the agent's result (data) and its signed provenance record (\_provenance).

## `credential` (type: `string`):

The full hub response as a W3C Verifiable Credential with a C2PA-style manifest; verify it at https://agents.writerslogic.com/api/v1/verify-provenance.

# API

You can run this Actor programmatically using our API. Below are code examples in JavaScript, Python, and CLI, as well as the OpenAPI specification and MCP server setup.

## JavaScript example

```javascript
import { ApifyClient } from 'apify-client';

// Initialize the ApifyClient with your Apify API token
// Replace the '<YOUR_API_TOKEN>' with your token
const client = new ApifyClient({
    token: '<YOUR_API_TOKEN>',
});

// Prepare Actor input
const input = {
    "marketA": {
        "platform": "Polymarket",
        "title": "Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2027?",
        "resolutionRules": "This market will resolve to Yes if any Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT between Jan 1, 2027 00:00 and Dec 31, 2027 23:59 ET has a final High price of $150,000 or higher. Otherwise it resolves to No. The resolution source is Binance BTC/USDT with the 1m candle selected.",
        "yesPrice": 0.31,
        "noPrice": 0.7,
        "feeBps": 0,
        "endDate": "2027-12-31T23:59:00-05:00"
    },
    "marketB": {
        "platform": "Kalshi",
        "title": "Bitcoin price at the end of 2027: above $150,000?",
        "resolutionRules": "If the CF Benchmarks BRTI price at 5:00 PM EST on December 31, 2027 is above $150,000, then the market resolves to Yes. Otherwise it resolves to No. The Source Agency is CF Benchmarks; the value is the average BRTI over the 60 seconds before the expiration time.",
        "yesPrice": 0.22,
        "noPrice": 0.79,
        "yesFeeBps": 546,
        "noFeeBps": 147,
        "endDate": "2027-12-31T17:00:00-05:00"
    },
    "minEdgeBps": "100",
    "bankrollUsd": "10000"
};

// Run the Actor and wait for it to finish
const run = await client.actor("davidcondrey/wl-arbitrage-lawyer").call(input);

// Fetch and print Actor results from the run's dataset (if any)
console.log('Results from dataset');
console.log(`💾 Check your data here: https://console.apify.com/storage/datasets/${run.defaultDatasetId}`);
const { items } = await client.dataset(run.defaultDatasetId).listItems();
items.forEach((item) => {
    console.dir(item);
});

// 📚 Want to learn more 📖? Go to → https://docs.apify.com/api/client/js/docs

```

## Python example

```python
from apify_client import ApifyClient

# Initialize the ApifyClient with your Apify API token
# Replace '<YOUR_API_TOKEN>' with your token.
client = ApifyClient("<YOUR_API_TOKEN>")

# Prepare the Actor input
run_input = {
    "marketA": {
        "platform": "Polymarket",
        "title": "Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2027?",
        "resolutionRules": "This market will resolve to Yes if any Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT between Jan 1, 2027 00:00 and Dec 31, 2027 23:59 ET has a final High price of $150,000 or higher. Otherwise it resolves to No. The resolution source is Binance BTC/USDT with the 1m candle selected.",
        "yesPrice": 0.31,
        "noPrice": 0.7,
        "feeBps": 0,
        "endDate": "2027-12-31T23:59:00-05:00",
    },
    "marketB": {
        "platform": "Kalshi",
        "title": "Bitcoin price at the end of 2027: above $150,000?",
        "resolutionRules": "If the CF Benchmarks BRTI price at 5:00 PM EST on December 31, 2027 is above $150,000, then the market resolves to Yes. Otherwise it resolves to No. The Source Agency is CF Benchmarks; the value is the average BRTI over the 60 seconds before the expiration time.",
        "yesPrice": 0.22,
        "noPrice": 0.79,
        "yesFeeBps": 546,
        "noFeeBps": 147,
        "endDate": "2027-12-31T17:00:00-05:00",
    },
    "minEdgeBps": "100",
    "bankrollUsd": "10000",
}

# Run the Actor and wait for it to finish
run = client.actor("davidcondrey/wl-arbitrage-lawyer").call(run_input=run_input)

# Fetch and print Actor results from the run's dataset (if there are any)
print(f"💾 Check your data here: https://console.apify.com/storage/datasets/{run.default_dataset_id}")
for item in client.dataset(run.default_dataset_id).iterate_items():
    print(item)

# 📚 Want to learn more 📖? Go to → https://docs.apify.com/api/client/python/docs/quick-start

```

## CLI example

```bash
echo '{
  "marketA": {
    "platform": "Polymarket",
    "title": "Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2027?",
    "resolutionRules": "This market will resolve to Yes if any Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT between Jan 1, 2027 00:00 and Dec 31, 2027 23:59 ET has a final High price of $150,000 or higher. Otherwise it resolves to No. The resolution source is Binance BTC/USDT with the 1m candle selected.",
    "yesPrice": 0.31,
    "noPrice": 0.7,
    "feeBps": 0,
    "endDate": "2027-12-31T23:59:00-05:00"
  },
  "marketB": {
    "platform": "Kalshi",
    "title": "Bitcoin price at the end of 2027: above $150,000?",
    "resolutionRules": "If the CF Benchmarks BRTI price at 5:00 PM EST on December 31, 2027 is above $150,000, then the market resolves to Yes. Otherwise it resolves to No. The Source Agency is CF Benchmarks; the value is the average BRTI over the 60 seconds before the expiration time.",
    "yesPrice": 0.22,
    "noPrice": 0.79,
    "yesFeeBps": 546,
    "noFeeBps": 147,
    "endDate": "2027-12-31T17:00:00-05:00"
  },
  "minEdgeBps": "100",
  "bankrollUsd": "10000"
}' |
apify call davidcondrey/wl-arbitrage-lawyer --silent --output-dataset

```

## MCP server setup

```json
{
    "mcpServers": {
        "apify": {
            "type": "http",
            "url": "https://mcp.apify.com/?tools=fetch-actor-details,davidcondrey/wl-arbitrage-lawyer"
        }
    }
}
```

The hosted server signs you in with OAuth on first connect, so no API token belongs in this config. Clients without OAuth support can send an `Authorization: Bearer <APIFY_API_TOKEN>` header instead, using a token from API & Integrations in Apify Console (https://console.apify.com/settings/integrations).

## OpenAPI specification

Download the OpenAPI definition: https://api.apify.com/v2/actors/7YC8e3vuSfKuUoKXs/builds/JvvndwIGHmfphcZaE/openapi.json