# Prediction Market Analyzer (`davidcondrey/wl-market-predictor`) Actor

Sentiment analysis and a calibrated 0-100 probability that a Polymarket/Kalshi-style event resolves Yes.

- **URL**: https://apify.com/davidcondrey/wl-market-predictor.md
- **Developed by:** [WritersLogic](https://apify.com/davidcondrey) (community)
- **Categories:** AI, Agents, Business
- **Security:** Limited permissions
- **Stats:** 2 total users, 1 monthly users, 100.0% runs succeeded, 0 bookmarks
- **User rating**: No ratings yet

## Pricing

$130.00 / 1,000 prediction market analyzer runs

This Actor is paid per event. You are not charged for the Apify platform usage, but only a fixed price for specific events.

Learn more: https://docs.apify.com/actors/running/actors-in-store.md#pay-per-event

## What's an Apify Actor?

An Actor is a serverless cloud program that runs on the Apify platform. It has two run modes.
In Batch mode, an Actor accepts a well-defined JSON input, performs an action which can take anything from a few seconds to a few hours,
and optionally produces a well-defined JSON output, datasets with results, or files in key-value store.
In Standby mode, an Actor provides a web server which can be used as a website, API, or an MCP server.

Apify vocabulary and the platform model are defined once, in the agent quickstart at https://apify.com/agents.md.

## How to integrate an Actor?

If asked about integration, you help developers integrate Actors into their projects.
You adapt to their stack and deliver integrations that are safe, well-documented, and production-ready.

Do not guess an integration path. Every one of them is in the agent quickstart at https://apify.com/agents.md: the Apify MCP server, Agent Skills with the Apify CLI, the JavaScript and Python clients, the REST API, and the account-free path for an agent with no human to sign in. It also carries the rule on stating cost before the first paid run.

For examples already wired to this Actor's own input schema, see the [API](#api) section below.

Each client library has reference documentation the quickstart does not restate: [JavaScript/TypeScript](https://docs.apify.com/api/client/js/docs.md) (`npm install apify-client`) and [Python](https://docs.apify.com/api/client/python/docs.md) (`pip install apify-client`).

# README

## Prediction Market Analyzer

Independent probability that a Polymarket or Kalshi market resolves Yes, checked against the live book. Pass a market (slug, URL, conditionId or Kalshi ticker) and/or news text: the agent reads the rules, end date and best asks, estimates 0-100 with live web search (falling back to model knowledge if search is slow), and returns verdict.action BUY_YES / BUY_NO / NO_TRADE with edge in bps after taker fees, a confidence gate, quarter-Kelly size and sourced factors for and against. Resolved markets return their outcome without a model call. Not financial advice.

Every result is a **signed, verifiable answer**:

- a W3C Verifiable Credential 2.0, signed with `eddsa-jcs-2022` by `did:web:agents.writerslogic.com`;
- a C2PA-style manifest that lists every source the agent read, each with its SHA-256;
- an EIP-191 co-signature over the same digest.

Change one byte and verification fails, so you can pass the result to a client, an auditor or another agent and they can check it without trusting you or us.

### How to use Prediction Market Analyzer

1. Fill in the input form. Required fields are marked; the form opens with a working example.
2. Start the run.
3. Read the result in the **Output** tab, or download the dataset as JSON. The full signed envelope is also saved as the `OUTPUT` record in the key-value store.

### Input

| Field | Required | Description |
|---|---|---|
| `text` | no | News excerpt or event description. Required unless market is given; with market, extra evidence you want weighed. |
| `question` | no | Exact market question; inferred when omitted (read from the market when market is given). |
| `market` | no | Polymarket slug, market URL or conditionId, or a Kalshi ticker or URL. Reads the question, rules, end date and live best asks; marketPriceYes then defaults to the book mid. A resolved market returns its outcome without a model call. |
| `minEdgePct` | no | Minimum edge after taker fees, in percentage points, before verdict.action is BUY_YES or BUY_NO (default 5). A low-confidence estimate never produces a BUY. |
| `bankrollUsd` | no | Converts the quarter-Kelly fraction into verdict.size_usd. |
| `marketPriceYes` | no | Current implied Yes probability, used to compute edge. Percent (0-100) by default; a value strictly between 0 and 1 is read as a 0-1 market price (Polymarket/Kalshi style) unless marketPriceScale says otherwise. |
| `marketPriceScale` | no | Force the unit of marketPriceYes: percent (35 = 35%) or fraction (0.35 = 35%). |

Example input:

```json
{
  "market": "will-jd-vance-win-the-2028-us-presidential-election",
  "minEdgePct": 5,
  "bankrollUsd": 10000
}
```

### Output

```json
{
  "agent": "market-predictor",
  "priceUsd": 0.13,
  "data": { "...": "the agent's answer" },
  "_provenance": { "credential": {}, "manifest": {}, "ethSignature": "0x..." }
}
```

To check a result for free, POST `{ "data": ..., "_provenance": ... }` to `https://agents.writerslogic.com/api/v1/verify-provenance`, or verify it offline against the public key in the [DID document](https://agents.writerslogic.com/.well-known/did.json).

### Pricing

**$0.13 per successful run**, charged once and only after the agent returns its answer. If the input is rejected or the agent fails, you are not charged for the call.

### Use it from code or an AI assistant

- Apify API and integrations: call this Actor from Make, Zapier, n8n, LangChain or the Apify API like any other Actor.
- MCP: `npx -y @writerslogic/ai-agents-mcp` exposes this agent and the rest of the hub as tools.
- x402: the same agent is available at `POST https://agents.writerslogic.com/api/v1/predict-market`, paid per call in USDC on Base.

### More verifiable agents

- [Cross-Platform Arbitrage & Resolution Rules Lawyer](https://apify.com/davidcondrey/wl-arbitrage-lawyer)
- [Medical Bill Upcoding & Overcharge Slasher](https://apify.com/davidcondrey/wl-medical-bill-auditor)
- [Dark Pattern Contract & Subscription Exit Lawyer](https://apify.com/davidcondrey/wl-contract-terminator)
- [Patent Design-Around & Freedom-to-Operate Architect](https://apify.com/davidcondrey/wl-patent-design-around)
- [Prediction-Market Clarification Impact Pricer](https://apify.com/davidcondrey/wl-clarification-impact)
- [UMA Dispute EV Desk](https://apify.com/davidcondrey/wl-dispute-ev)
- [All agents in one Actor](https://apify.com/davidcondrey/verifiable-ai-agents)

### FAQ

**Who runs this?** [WritersLogic](https://writerslogic.com/agents). The agent runs on the WritersLogic Verifiable AI Agent Hub; this Actor sends your input there and returns the signed result.

**Is my input stored?** The Actor stores your result in your own Apify storage. Ask before sending confidential documents; the hub is a third-party service from your point of view.

# Actor input Schema

## `text` (type: `string`):

News excerpt or event description. Required unless market is given; with market, extra evidence you want weighed.

## `question` (type: `string`):

Exact market question; inferred when omitted (read from the market when market is given).

## `market` (type: `string`):

Polymarket slug, market URL or conditionId, or a Kalshi ticker or URL. Reads the question, rules, end date and live best asks; marketPriceYes then defaults to the book mid. A resolved market returns its outcome without a model call.

## `minEdgePct` (type: `string`):

Minimum edge after taker fees, in percentage points, before verdict.action is BUY_YES or BUY_NO (default 5). A low-confidence estimate never produces a BUY. (a number)

## `bankrollUsd` (type: `string`):

Converts the quarter-Kelly fraction into verdict.size_usd. (a number)

## `marketPriceYes` (type: `string`):

Current implied Yes probability, used to compute edge. Percent (0-100) by default; a value strictly between 0 and 1 is read as a 0-1 market price (Polymarket/Kalshi style) unless marketPriceScale says otherwise. (a number)

## `marketPriceScale` (type: `string`):

Force the unit of marketPriceYes: percent (35 = 35%) or fraction (0.35 = 35%).

## Actor input object example

```json
{
  "market": "will-jd-vance-win-the-2028-us-presidential-election",
  "minEdgePct": "5",
  "bankrollUsd": "10000"
}
```

# Actor output Schema

## `results` (type: `string`):

One dataset item per call: the agent id, the price charged, the agent's result (data) and its signed provenance record (\_provenance).

## `credential` (type: `string`):

The full hub response as a W3C Verifiable Credential with a C2PA-style manifest; verify it at https://agents.writerslogic.com/api/v1/verify-provenance.

# API

You can run this Actor programmatically using our API. Below are code examples in JavaScript, Python, and CLI, as well as the OpenAPI specification and MCP server setup.

## JavaScript example

```javascript
import { ApifyClient } from 'apify-client';

// Initialize the ApifyClient with your Apify API token
// Replace the '<YOUR_API_TOKEN>' with your token
const client = new ApifyClient({
    token: '<YOUR_API_TOKEN>',
});

// Prepare Actor input
const input = {
    "market": "will-jd-vance-win-the-2028-us-presidential-election",
    "minEdgePct": "5",
    "bankrollUsd": "10000"
};

// Run the Actor and wait for it to finish
const run = await client.actor("davidcondrey/wl-market-predictor").call(input);

// Fetch and print Actor results from the run's dataset (if any)
console.log('Results from dataset');
console.log(`💾 Check your data here: https://console.apify.com/storage/datasets/${run.defaultDatasetId}`);
const { items } = await client.dataset(run.defaultDatasetId).listItems();
items.forEach((item) => {
    console.dir(item);
});

// 📚 Want to learn more 📖? Go to → https://docs.apify.com/api/client/js/docs

```

## Python example

```python
from apify_client import ApifyClient

# Initialize the ApifyClient with your Apify API token
# Replace '<YOUR_API_TOKEN>' with your token.
client = ApifyClient("<YOUR_API_TOKEN>")

# Prepare the Actor input
run_input = {
    "market": "will-jd-vance-win-the-2028-us-presidential-election",
    "minEdgePct": "5",
    "bankrollUsd": "10000",
}

# Run the Actor and wait for it to finish
run = client.actor("davidcondrey/wl-market-predictor").call(run_input=run_input)

# Fetch and print Actor results from the run's dataset (if there are any)
print(f"💾 Check your data here: https://console.apify.com/storage/datasets/{run.default_dataset_id}")
for item in client.dataset(run.default_dataset_id).iterate_items():
    print(item)

# 📚 Want to learn more 📖? Go to → https://docs.apify.com/api/client/python/docs/quick-start

```

## CLI example

```bash
echo '{
  "market": "will-jd-vance-win-the-2028-us-presidential-election",
  "minEdgePct": "5",
  "bankrollUsd": "10000"
}' |
apify call davidcondrey/wl-market-predictor --silent --output-dataset

```

## MCP server setup

```json
{
    "mcpServers": {
        "apify": {
            "type": "http",
            "url": "https://mcp.apify.com/?tools=fetch-actor-details,davidcondrey/wl-market-predictor"
        }
    }
}
```

The hosted server signs you in with OAuth on first connect, so no API token belongs in this config. Clients without OAuth support can send an `Authorization: Bearer <APIFY_API_TOKEN>` header instead, using a token from API & Integrations in Apify Console (https://console.apify.com/settings/integrations).

## OpenAPI specification

Download the OpenAPI definition: https://api.apify.com/v2/actors/1oohw3TMPwgxOo3Ms/builds/fkNfvIw0a21tjmfJd/openapi.json