# Manifold Markets Prediction Tracker (`gochujang/manifold-markets-tracker`) Actor

Browse, search, and track prediction markets on Manifold Markets — AI, crypto, politics, sports, and more. No API key required.

- **URL**: https://apify.com/gochujang/manifold-markets-tracker.md
- **Developed by:** [Hojun Lee](https://apify.com/gochujang) (community)
- **Categories:** Business
- **Stats:** 2 total users, 1 monthly users, 100.0% runs succeeded, 0 bookmarks
- **User rating**: No ratings yet

## Pricing

from $1.00 / 1,000 item trackeds

This Actor is paid per event. You are not charged for the Apify platform usage, but only a fixed price for specific events.

Learn more: https://docs.apify.com/actors/running/actors-in-store.md#pay-per-event

## What's an Apify Actor?

An Actor is a serverless cloud program that runs on the Apify platform. It has two run modes.
In Batch mode, an Actor accepts a well-defined JSON input, performs an action which can take anything from a few seconds to a few hours,
and optionally produces a well-defined JSON output, datasets with results, or files in key-value store.
In Standby mode, an Actor provides a web server which can be used as a website, API, or an MCP server.

Apify vocabulary and the platform model are defined once, in the agent quickstart at https://apify.com/agents.md.

## How to integrate an Actor?

If asked about integration, you help developers integrate Actors into their projects.
You adapt to their stack and deliver integrations that are safe, well-documented, and production-ready.

Do not guess an integration path. Every one of them is in the agent quickstart at https://apify.com/agents.md: the Apify MCP server, Agent Skills with the Apify CLI, the JavaScript and Python clients, the REST API, and the account-free path for an agent with no human to sign in. It also carries the rule on stating cost before the first paid run.

For examples already wired to this Actor's own input schema, see the [API](#api) section below.

Each client library has reference documentation the quickstart does not restate: [JavaScript/TypeScript](https://docs.apify.com/api/client/js/docs.md) (`npm install apify-client`) and [Python](https://docs.apify.com/api/client/python/docs.md) (`pip install apify-client`).

# README

### Manifold Markets Prediction Tracker — Browse & Search Any Prediction Market

Fetch live prediction market data from **Manifold Markets**, the open and free prediction market platform where anyone can create and trade on any question — AI, crypto, politics, sports, science, technology, and more. No API key required.

Track market probabilities, trader activity, volume, and resolution status for any topic. Search by keyword, filter by topic group, or look up specific markets by slug or ID.

### What You Get

For each market, the actor returns:

- **Question and URL** — the full market question and direct link
- **Current probability %** — for binary (yes/no) markets, the implied probability
- **Outcome type** — BINARY, MULTIPLE_CHOICE, PSEUDO_NUMERIC, POLL
- **Top answers** — for multiple-choice markets, each option with probability
- **Resolution** — YES, NO, N/A, or specific answer for resolved markets
- **Trader count** — number of unique bettors
- **Volume** — total trading volume (in mana, Manifold's play money)
- **24h volume** — recent activity indicator
- **Total liquidity** — market liquidity depth
- **Topic groups** — which topic categories the market belongs to
- **Timestamps** — created, close, and resolved dates

### Input Parameters

| Parameter | Type | Default | Description |
|-----------|------|---------|-------------|
| `mode` | string | `"trending"` | `"trending"` to browse, `"search"` to find by keyword, `"specific"` for exact markets |
| `sort` | string | `"score"` | Sort order: `score`, `newest`, `most-popular`, `24-hour-vol`, `liquidity`, `close-date` |
| `limit` | integer | `50` | Max markets to return (max 1000) |
| `searchTerm` | string | — | Keyword for search mode (e.g. `"bitcoin"`, `"AGI"`, `"election"`) |
| `groupSlug` | string | — | Topic filter: `"ai"`, `"crypto"`, `"politics"`, `"sports"`, `"science"` |
| `marketSlugs` | array | `[]` | Specific market slugs for direct lookup |
| `marketIds` | array | `[]` | Specific market IDs for direct lookup |

### Sample Output

```json
{
  "id": "abc123",
  "question": "Will Bitcoin exceed $150,000 by end of 2025?",
  "url": "https://manifold.markets/user/will-bitcoin-exceed-150k",
  "creator_username": "cryptotrader",
  "outcome_type": "BINARY",
  "probability_pct": 38.5,
  "answers": null,
  "resolution": null,
  "is_resolved": false,
  "trader_count": 847,
  "volume_24h": 1240.50,
  "volume_total": 58420.0,
  "total_liquidity": 5000.0,
  "group_slugs": ["crypto", "bitcoin"],
  "created_at": "2024-11-01T10:00:00Z",
  "close_at": "2025-12-31T23:59:00Z",
  "resolved_at": null,
  "description_text": "Resolves YES if Bitcoin's price reaches or exceeds $150,000..."
}
```

#### Multiple-Choice Market Example

```json
{
  "question": "Which AI lab will release the strongest model in Q1 2026?",
  "outcome_type": "MULTIPLE_CHOICE",
  "probability_pct": null,
  "answers": [
    {"text": "OpenAI", "probability_pct": 42.0},
    {"text": "Anthropic", "probability_pct": 31.5},
    {"text": "Google DeepMind", "probability_pct": 18.2},
    {"text": "xAI", "probability_pct": 8.3}
  ]
}
```

### Topic Groups

Filter by `groupSlug` to get markets in a specific topic:

| groupSlug | Description |
|-----------|-------------|
| `ai` | Artificial intelligence, LLMs, AGI |
| `crypto` | Cryptocurrency, DeFi, blockchain |
| `politics` | Elections, policy, government |
| `sports` | Game outcomes, championships |
| `science` | Research, technology breakthroughs |
| `finance` | Stocks, economy, markets |
| `fun` | Memes, pop culture |

### Use Cases

- **Research aggregation** — pull AI/tech/crypto community consensus forecasts
- **Political analysis** — track election and policy market probabilities
- **Calibration training** — build datasets of prediction market questions + outcomes for ML
- **Trend detection** — monitor what topics are generating the most trading activity
- **Crowd intelligence** — compare market probabilities across different question types
- **Academic research** — study prediction market behavior and accuracy

### About Manifold Markets

Manifold Markets is a free prediction market platform where users trade with "mana" (play money). Markets are community-created and cover virtually any question. The platform is particularly popular in the AI research, tech, and rationalist communities, with thousands of active markets and a strong track record of calibrated predictions.

### Pricing

Pay-per-event: **$0.002 per market returned** (~$0.10 for 50 markets, $0.50 for 250).

### FAQ

**Is Manifold Markets real money?**
No — Manifold uses "mana" (M), a play-money currency. Markets are for fun and calibration training, not financial gain.

**How accurate are the predictions?**
Manifold markets have shown reasonable calibration on many topics, particularly in tech and AI. Markets with higher volume tend to be more accurate.

**Can I fetch all markets on any topic?**
Yes — use `groupSlug` to filter by topic or `searchTerm` to keyword-search. With `limit: 1000` you can pull up to 1,000 markets per run.

**Are resolved markets included?**
Yes — by default, both open and resolved markets are returned. Filter in your pipeline using the `is_resolved` field.

***

### Related actors

- [Metaculus Forecast Tracker](https://apify.com/gochujang/metaculus-forecasts) — Research-grade calibrated forecasts from Metaculus to compare with Manifold market probabilities
- [Crypto News Sentiment Analyzer](https://apify.com/gochujang/crypto-news-sentiment) — News sentiment to pair with Manifold crypto/AI market predictions
- [Federal Reserve Rate Probability](https://apify.com/gochujang/fed-rate-probability) — CME-derived rate probabilities to compare with Manifold interest rate prediction markets

### Feedback

If this actor helps your prediction market research, a review helps others find it: [Leave a review on Apify Store](https://apify.com/gochujang/manifold-markets-tracker#reviews)

***

**Keywords:** Manifold Markets prediction tracker, prediction market data, crypto prediction markets, AI forecasts, sports betting markets, political prediction markets, market probability tracker, Manifold Markets API, play money forecasting, crowd forecast aggregator, prediction market volume, resolution date tracker, Manifold liquidity data

# Actor input Schema

## `mode` (type: `string`):

'trending' to browse by sort order, 'search' to search by keyword, 'specific' to fetch market slugs/IDs directly.

## `sort` (type: `string`):

How to sort markets in trending/search mode.

## `limit` (type: `integer`):

Maximum number of markets to return (max 1000).

## `searchTerm` (type: `string`):

Keyword to search for (used in 'search' mode). E.g. 'AI' or 'bitcoin' or 'election'.

## `groupSlug` (type: `string`):

Filter by topic group slug, e.g. 'ai', 'crypto', 'politics', 'sports', 'science'.

## `marketSlugs` (type: `array`):

Specific market slugs to fetch (e.g. \['will-bitcoin-hit-100k-in-2025']). Used in 'specific' mode.

## `marketIds` (type: `array`):

Specific market IDs to fetch. Used in 'specific' mode.

## Actor input object example

```json
{
  "mode": "trending",
  "sort": "score",
  "limit": 50,
  "marketSlugs": [],
  "marketIds": []
}
```

# Actor output Schema

## `results` (type: `string`):

No description

# API

You can run this Actor programmatically using our API. Below are code examples in JavaScript, Python, and CLI, as well as the OpenAPI specification and MCP server setup.

## JavaScript example

```javascript
import { ApifyClient } from 'apify-client';

// Initialize the ApifyClient with your Apify API token
// Replace the '<YOUR_API_TOKEN>' with your token
const client = new ApifyClient({
    token: '<YOUR_API_TOKEN>',
});

// Prepare Actor input
const input = {};

// Run the Actor and wait for it to finish
const run = await client.actor("gochujang/manifold-markets-tracker").call(input);

// Fetch and print Actor results from the run's dataset (if any)
console.log('Results from dataset');
console.log(`💾 Check your data here: https://console.apify.com/storage/datasets/${run.defaultDatasetId}`);
const { items } = await client.dataset(run.defaultDatasetId).listItems();
items.forEach((item) => {
    console.dir(item);
});

// 📚 Want to learn more 📖? Go to → https://docs.apify.com/api/client/js/docs

```

## Python example

```python
from apify_client import ApifyClient

# Initialize the ApifyClient with your Apify API token
# Replace '<YOUR_API_TOKEN>' with your token.
client = ApifyClient("<YOUR_API_TOKEN>")

# Prepare the Actor input
run_input = {}

# Run the Actor and wait for it to finish
run = client.actor("gochujang/manifold-markets-tracker").call(run_input=run_input)

# Fetch and print Actor results from the run's dataset (if there are any)
print(f"💾 Check your data here: https://console.apify.com/storage/datasets/{run.default_dataset_id}")
for item in client.dataset(run.default_dataset_id).iterate_items():
    print(item)

# 📚 Want to learn more 📖? Go to → https://docs.apify.com/api/client/python/docs/quick-start

```

## CLI example

```bash
echo '{}' |
apify call gochujang/manifold-markets-tracker --silent --output-dataset

```

## MCP server setup

```json
{
    "mcpServers": {
        "apify": {
            "type": "http",
            "url": "https://mcp.apify.com/?tools=fetch-actor-details,gochujang/manifold-markets-tracker"
        }
    }
}
```

The hosted server signs you in with OAuth on first connect, so no API token belongs in this config. Clients without OAuth support can send an `Authorization: Bearer <APIFY_API_TOKEN>` header instead, using a token from API & Integrations in Apify Console (https://console.apify.com/settings/integrations).

## OpenAPI specification

Download the OpenAPI definition: https://api.apify.com/v2/actors/2l6yVKf9fKOmSBLNI/builds/u6Gp61EkP34sFaA4a/openapi.json