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NHL Value Bets vs Live Kalshi Prices

Compares the model's playoff probability for each NHL team against the live Kalshi contract, strips the overround out of the market price, and reports the edge, the expected value after Kalshi's fees and a quarter-Kelly stake capped by position and portfolio limits. Before the league has played ten games per team, edges are still shown in full but no row is allowed to claim VALUE.

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NHL Playoff Odds API — Monte Carlo Simulator & Value Bets
NHL Playoff Odds API — Monte Carlo Simulator & Value Betscommodus67/nhl-playoff-odds-monte-carlo
Team
Model playoff %
Market playoff %
Edge
+6 fields
Text
Number
Boolean
List
Object

Input

Games needed before a VALUE call:10
Minimum edge to flag value:0.05
Bankroll for position sizing:1000
Max stake per position:0.02
Max total portfolio exposure:0.06

Output fields

Team
Model playoff %
Market playoff %
Edge
EV after fees
Verdict
Kelly uncapped
Stake % of bankroll
Suggested stake
Capped

How it works

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The NHL Playoff Odds API — Monte Carlo Simulator & Value Bets Actor is ready to run with the inputs already set for "NHL Value Bets vs Live Kalshi Prices". Sign up or log in and you'll land in Apify Console with a copy of this exact task.

Start the "NHL Value Bets vs Live Kalshi Prices" task

The NHL Playoff Odds API — Monte Carlo Simulator & Value Bets Actor will start running based on the input automatically. You can also change all the input fields, like games needed before a value call, minimum edge to flag value, and more, to match your specific use case.

Receive the "NHL Value Bets vs Live Kalshi Prices" output

Monitor the progress in real time. You will be notified as soon as your dataset is complete and ready for review. Each result includes data such as team, model playoff %, market playoff %, and more.

Integrate into your workflow

The final output is delivered in JSON, CSV, or Excel format, ready to be plugged into your workflow. You can also run the "NHL Value Bets vs Live Kalshi Prices" task via API.

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