Agricultural Commodity Climate MCP Server

Crop risk and food supply disruption intelligence for AI agents via the Model Context Protocol. This MCP server orchestrates 8 data sources spanning weather systems, disaster alerts, trade flows, biodiversity, and economic indicators to deliver growing region weather stress analysis, pest emergence monitoring, trade dependency scoring with HHI concentration analysis, price shock probability estimation, and a composite Commodity Risk Score (0-100).

What data can you access?

Data Point	Source	Coverage
Weather patterns and severe weather alerts	NOAA Weather	US and global
Multi-day weather forecasting	Weather Forecast	Global locations
Global disaster alerts and events	GDACS Disaster Alerts	Worldwide real-time
Agricultural trade flow data	UN COMTRADE	200+ countries
Agricultural and economic indicators	World Bank Indicators	200+ countries
Species distribution for pest emergence	GBIF Biodiversity	2B+ occurrence records
Commodity price indicators	FRED Economic Data	All major commodities
Growing region geocoding	Nominatim Geocoder	Global coverage

MCP Tools

Tool	Price	Description
crop_region_risk_assessment	$2.00	Assess crop region weather risk: severe alerts, temperature extremes, drought indicators, and disaster exposure across NOAA, Weather Forecast, GDACS, and Nominatim.
weather_yield_threat_monitor	$2.00	Monitor weather threats to crop yields: drought, frost, flood, and heat stress tracking with yield impact scoring.
pest_emergence_alert	$2.00	Detect pest and disease emergence from GBIF biodiversity species spread patterns with agricultural vulnerability assessment.
trade_dependency_analysis	$2.00	Analyze commodity trade dependencies with HHI partner concentration scoring, price volatility, and supply chain concentration via COMTRADE and FRED.
price_shock_probability	$2.00	Estimate price shock probability from supply-demand balance, weather stress, and trade disruption signals across FRED, NOAA, GDACS, and COMTRADE.
growing_season_forecast	$2.00	Forecast growing season conditions: temperature patterns, precipitation outlook, and frost/heat risk windows.
food_security_vulnerability	$2.00	Assess food security vulnerability by country: agricultural GDP dependency, trade concentration, disaster exposure, and food price inflation.
compare_commodity_risks	$4.00	Full commodity risk comparison using all 8 sources. Returns Commodity Risk Score (0-100) with weather, pest, trade, and price dimensions.

Data Sources

• NOAA Weather -- National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration weather alerts, severe weather advisories, and climate data
• Weather Forecast -- Multi-day weather forecasting for growing regions including temperature, precipitation, and wind
• GDACS Disaster Alerts -- Global Disaster Alerting Coordination System real-time disaster events (floods, droughts, cyclones)
• UN COMTRADE -- United Nations international trade statistics for agricultural commodities by HS code and country
• World Bank Indicators -- Agricultural GDP share, food production indices, and economic vulnerability indicators by country
• GBIF Biodiversity -- Global Biodiversity Information Facility species occurrence data for pest and disease spread tracking
• FRED Economic Data -- Federal Reserve Economic Data including commodity price indices, food CPI, and agricultural futures
• Nominatim Geocoder -- OpenStreetMap geocoding for growing region identification and coordinate resolution

How the scoring works

Five scoring models quantify different dimensions of agricultural commodity risk.

Growing Region Weather Stress Index analyzes the interaction between weather patterns and crop phenology stages. It combines active severe weather alerts, temperature extremes, precipitation anomalies, and disaster exposure from NOAA and GDACS data.

Pest and Disease Emergence Score uses GBIF species occurrence data to detect invasive pest and disease spread patterns. Rising observation counts for known agricultural pests in new geographic areas signal emergence risk.

Trade Disruption Cascade Model applies Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) concentration analysis to COMTRADE trade flow data. It models how supply disruption in one origin country propagates through trade networks to importing nations.

Price Shock Probability combines supply-demand balance signals from FRED price data with weather stress and trade disruption indicators. Historical price volatility calibrates the probability of exceeding defined shock thresholds.

Commodity Risk Score (0-100) is the weighted composite:

Score Range	Level	Interpretation
80-100	CRITICAL	Multiple active risk factors, supply disruption likely
60-79	HIGH	Significant weather or trade risk, elevated price volatility
40-59	MODERATE	Some risk factors present, monitoring recommended
20-39	LOW	Stable conditions with minor risk indicators
0-19	MINIMAL	No significant risk signals detected

How to connect this MCP server

Claude Desktop

Add to your claude_desktop_config.json:

{
  "mcpServers": {
    "agricultural-commodity-climate": {
      "url": "https://agricultural-commodity-climate-mcp.apify.actor/mcp"
    }
  }
}

Programmatic (HTTP)

curl -X POST https://agricultural-commodity-climate-mcp.apify.actor/mcp \
  -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -H "Authorization: Bearer YOUR_APIFY_TOKEN" \
  -d '{"jsonrpc":"2.0","method":"tools/call","params":{"name":"price_shock_probability","arguments":{"commodity":"wheat"}},"id":1}'

This MCP server also works with Cursor, Windsurf, Cline, and any other MCP-compatible client.

Use cases for agricultural commodity intelligence

Commodity Trading Risk Monitoring

Monitor price shock probability and growing season risk for active trading positions. The price_shock_probability tool combines weather, disaster, and trade flow signals into a quantified probability for price moves.

Crop Insurance Underwriting

Assess weather-yield threats for underwriting decisions with crop_region_risk_assessment. The Weather Stress Index provides a quantified score for premium setting across growing regions.

Food Company Supply Chain Planning

Forecast supply disruptions with trade_dependency_analysis to identify single-source dependencies in your supply chain. HHI concentration scoring highlights commodities with dangerous supplier concentration.

Agricultural Investment Analysis

Compare risk profiles across commodities with compare_commodity_risks for portfolio allocation. The Commodity Risk Score enables apples-to-apples comparison of wheat vs. soybeans vs. coffee risk.

Government Food Security Planning

Assess national food security vulnerability by country with food_security_vulnerability. Identify nations most exposed to agricultural trade disruption and price inflation.

Pest and Disease Early Warning

Monitor pest emergence with pest_emergence_alert to detect invasive species spreading into new growing regions before they cause crop damage.

How much does it cost?

This MCP server uses pay-per-event pricing with no subscription fees.

Individual tools cost $2.00 per call. The comprehensive compare_commodity_risks costs $4.00 because it runs all 8 data sources.

The Apify Free plan includes $5 of monthly platform credits, covering 2 standard tool calls or 1 comprehensive comparison at no cost.

Example costs:

• Wheat price shock probability check: $2.00
• Full commodity risk comparison for coffee: $4.00
• Weekly monitoring of 4 growing regions: $8.00/week

How it works

1. Your AI agent calls a tool via MCP (e.g., price_shock_probability for wheat)
2. The server dispatches parallel queries to relevant Apify actors (FRED, NOAA, GDACS, COMTRADE)
3. Weather data, trade flows, disaster alerts, and price data are collected and normalized
4. Scoring algorithms compute weather stress, trade concentration HHI, and price shock probability
5. A structured JSON response is returned with scores, signals, and supporting data

All data sources are queried in parallel. Typical response time is 30-90 seconds.

FAQ

Q: What crops and commodities are covered? A: Any commodity traded via UN COMTRADE -- wheat, corn, soybeans, rice, coffee, cocoa, palm oil, sugar, cotton, and more. Weather analysis covers any growing region that can be geocoded via Nominatim.

Q: Is the weather data real-time? A: NOAA weather alerts and GDACS disaster alerts are near real-time. Weather forecasts provide multi-day outlooks. Historical climate analysis uses the most recent available period data.

Q: How does HHI concentration analysis work? A: The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index squares each supplier country's market share and sums them. HHI > 2,500 indicates high concentration (monopolistic supply). HHI < 1,500 indicates competitive supply.

Q: Is it legal to use this data? A: All data sources are publicly available international databases and government registries. See Apify's guide on web scraping legality.

Q: Can I set up alerts for specific commodities? A: Yes. Use Apify Schedules to run periodic risk checks and Apify Webhooks to trigger alerts when risk scores exceed your thresholds.

Q: Does this integrate with trading platforms? A: Results are returned as structured JSON suitable for integration with any trading system via the Apify API.

Related MCP servers

MCP Server	Focus
critical-minerals-dependency-mcp	Supply chain concentration analysis for non-agricultural commodities
climate-economic-nexus-mcp	Climate-economy integrated assessment modeling
sovereign-debt-contagion-mcp	Sovereign risk for commodity-producing nations

Integrations

This MCP server runs on the Apify platform and supports:

• Scheduling -- Set up daily or weekly commodity risk monitoring via Apify Schedules
• Webhooks -- Trigger alerts when weather stress, trade disruption, or price shock signals spike
• API access -- Call tools directly via the Apify API for trading system integration
• Dataset export -- Export results as JSON, CSV, or Excel for risk reports