SportSignals — Polymarket Season Market Edge Scanner
Pricing
from $10.00 / 1,000 signal results
SportSignals — Polymarket Season Market Edge Scanner
Scans Polymarket season markets using Monte Carlo simulation against live ESPN standings. Returns fair probability vs market price edge for EPL, La Liga, Bundesliga, Serie A, Ligue 1, Champions League, NBA and NHL.
Pricing
from $10.00 / 1,000 signal results
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Developer
busy_donkey
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1
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2
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1
Monthly active users
7 days ago
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Find mispriced season markets on Polymarket using Monte Carlo simulation.
Season markets ("Will Arsenal win the EPL?", "Will the Celtics make playoffs?") are slow to reprice after weekend results. This actor runs a 2,000-iteration Monte Carlo model against live ESPN standings and returns the gap between fair probability and current Polymarket price.
How It Works
- Live standings fetched from ESPN API every 60 seconds
- Monte Carlo simulation runs 2,000 seasons per team using current points, games played, and games remaining
- Edge calculation = fair_prob minus market_price — positive means the market is underpricing the outcome
- Results saved to dataset with full table view
Input
| Field | Default | Description |
|---|---|---|
botUrl | http://66.135.25.22:8003 | Season-bot signal API URL |
leagues | EPL, La Liga, Bundesliga, Serie A, Ligue 1, NBA, NHL | Leagues to scan |
marketTypes | winner, top4, playoffs | Market types per league |
minEdge | 0.0 | Minimum edge to save (0 = save all) |
valueBetsOnly | false | Only save has_value=true results |
Output
Each row in the dataset:
| Field | Description |
|---|---|
league | EPL, NBA, NHL etc |
team | Team name |
market_type | winner, top4, playoffs etc |
position | Current league position |
points | Current points/wins |
played | Games played |
fair_prob | Monte Carlo fair probability (0-1) |
market_price | Current Polymarket price (0-1) |
edge | fair_prob minus market_price |
has_value | YES if edge > 5% |
scanned_at | ISO timestamp |
Supported Leagues
| League | Market Types |
|---|---|
| EPL (England) | winner, top4, top2, relegated |
| La Liga (Spain) | winner, top4, top2, relegated |
| Bundesliga (Germany) | winner, top4, top2, relegated |
| Serie A (Italy) | winner, top4, top2, relegated |
| Ligue 1 (France) | winner, top4, top2, relegated |
| Champions League | winner, top4 |
| NBA | winner, playoffs |
| NHL | winner, playoffs, division_winner |
Best Windows
- Right after a big result — City drop points Saturday, Arsenal title odds haven't repriced yet
- Monday morning — weekend results processed by model, not yet by market
- After a relegation 6-pointer — position swings take hours to reprice
Notes
- Model does not account for injuries or suspensions
- Relegated/not_relegated markets excluded (non-linear risk poorly modelled)
- Cup markets excluded (bracket draw makes position-based models unreliable)
- Data refreshes every 60 seconds from ESPN public API
