Tennis Match Winner Monte Carlo
Pricing
from $10.00 / 1,000 match projections
Tennis Match Winner Monte Carlo
Monte Carlo win probabilities for live and upcoming ATP/WTA singles matches, compared against real-time Kalshi KXATPMATCH/KXWTAMATCH prediction-market prices to surface value edges.
Pricing
from $10.00 / 1,000 match projections
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ELIO LIBERATORE
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ATP/WTA Tennis Match Winner Monte Carlo + Kalshi
Live and upcoming ATP and WTA singles matches, projected with a Monte Carlo
model built on each player's current ranking points, compared against
Kalshi KXATPMATCH / KXWTAMATCH prediction-market
prices to surface edge.
What it does
For every singles match on today's ATP and/or WTA scoreboard:
- Pulls both players' current ATP/WTA ranking points.
- Estimates a pre-match win probability with a Bradley-Terry model on those points (calibrated against live Kalshi prices).
- If the match is already in progress, converts that pre-match probability into an equivalent per-set probability and Monte Carlo-simulates the sets remaining from the current score — so a player already up a set shows a higher win probability than the pre-match number, without needing point-by-point data.
- Optionally fetches the live Kalshi market for that match and reports the model's edge over the market price, a VALUE/WATCH verdict, and a suggested (half-Kelly by default) stake sized to your bankroll.
Output
One row per player per match. Key fields: player, opponent,
winProbability, method (pre-match or live-simulation), and, when
market comparison is on, kalshiYesAsk, edge, verdict
(VALUE/WATCH/NO_MARKET/ILLIQUID) and suggestedStake.
Two dataset views: Match overview (probabilities only) and Market edge (the Kalshi comparison columns).
Input
See the input schema for the full list. The defaults run both tours, compare against Kalshi, and use half-Kelly sizing with no bankroll set (so you get edges without stake suggestions until you set one).
Method notes
- Strength: live ATP/WTA ranking points (
site.api.espn.com), not a full-season stat line — there's no separate strength signal to fall back on for tennis the way there is for a team's point differential. - Format: best-of-3 everywhere except the men's Grand Slams (Australian Open, Roland Garros, Wimbledon, US Open), which are best-of-5. Every WTA event, including the women's Slams, is best-of-3.
- Uncertainty: the raw ranking-based probability is blended toward a
coin flip by
strengthUncertainty(default 0.15) to hedge against surface, current form, H2H and injuries — none of which ranking points alone can see. - Qualifying-round matches are excluded by default (
includeQualifying), since they rarely have a Kalshi market to compare against.
This Actor is a research tool. It does not place trades and is not financial advice.
