Polymarket + Kalshi Resolution Evidence & Settlement Monitor

Turn a prediction-market URL into a structured answer to a harder question than “what are the odds?”:

What exactly resolves this market, which official source determines it, what does that source say now, what outcome does the evidence support, and how certain is that conclusion?

This Actor is a deterministic resolution-evidence engine for Kalshi + Polymarket. V1.1 supports two high-value evidence families: weather (including The Weather Company settlement data used by current Kalshi weather markets) and U.S. macroeconomic releases. Unsupported markets return a safe UNKNOWN result instead of fabricated evidence.

What it does

1. Loads the market and its resolution rules from Kalshi or Polymarket public market metadata.
2. Normalizes the resolution condition.
3. Detects the evidence family and the authoritative source.
4. Queries an official source only.
5. Converts raw official data into the metric the market actually resolves on.
6. Evaluates the evidence-supported YES/NO state when deterministic.
7. Separates evidence state from the platform's actual final settlement.
8. In MONITOR mode, compares the report with the prior run and returns only meaningful state-change signals in a monitor object.

V1.1 official sources

Evidence family	Official source	Current V1.1 handling
Kalshi weather markets that name The Weather Company	The Weather Company (weather.com/kalshi)	Extract the market's CLI... settlement location and target date from the rules, query the official /kalshi/api/climate/primary endpoint, match the location record, and evaluate daily high/low or precipitation when the official value is available.
Weather markets that explicitly name NWS/NOAA	National Weather Service / NOAA (api.weather.gov)	Extract station from rules when possible and aggregate official observations. NWS is used only when the market rules actually name NWS/NOAA as the authoritative source.
CPI / inflation	U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics	CPI-U series; computes YoY or MoM only when the market wording clearly requests it
Unemployment	U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics	Official unemployment-rate series
Payrolls / jobs	U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics	Total nonfarm payroll level or monthly change when clearly requested
FOMC decisions	Federal Reserve	Official monetary-policy RSS + FOMC statements; can compute target-rate change in basis points
GDP	Bureau of Economic Analysis	Current official GDP headline; historical-quarter evaluation remains conservative unless the exact target can be verified

Generic weather apps, news articles, social media, market prices, and third-party aggregators are not used as settlement evidence.

Input

{
  "marketUrls": [
    "https://kalshi.com/markets/...",
    "https://polymarket.com/event/..."
  ],
  "mode": "CHECK",
  "maxMarkets": 25,
  "includeRawEvidence": false,
  "failOnUnsupported": false
}

marketUrls also accepts a bare Kalshi ticker such as KX... and a Polymarket slug. Kalshi event URLs/tickers and Polymarket event URLs can expand to multiple child markets, bounded by maxMarkets.

Try the example market

The prefilled Input example uses a finalized Kalshi unemployment market to demonstrate the report format. Replace it with your own supported market URL or ticker. A finalized example is not a live trading opportunity.

CHECK example

{
  "marketUrls": ["https://kalshi.com/markets/kxu3/unemployment/kxu3-26aug/kxu3-26aug-t4.0"],
  "mode": "CHECK"
}

The Actor writes one standardized report per market to the default dataset.

For a Kalshi weather market whose rules name The Weather Company, the report uses the official weather.com/kalshi climate endpoint and returns a source type such as OFFICIAL_TWC_KALSHI_CLIMATE. If the exact CLI... record is not published yet, the state is AWAITING_OFFICIAL_SOURCE; NWS is not substituted.

MONITOR example

{
  "marketUrls": [
    "https://kalshi.com/markets/kxu3/unemployment/kxu3-26aug/kxu3-26aug-t4.0"
  ],
  "mode": "MONITOR",
  "monitorStateKey": "my-resolution-watch"
}

A persistent named Apify key-value store keeps the prior report across separate runs. Each new dataset item receives:

{
  "monitor": {
    "previousEvidence": {},
    "currentEvidence": {},
    "evidenceChanged": true,
    "resolutionStateChanged": true,
    "confidenceChanged": false,
    "newOfficialData": true
  }
}

Output

{
  "platform": "KALSHI",
  "marketId": "KX...",
  "marketUrl": "https://kalshi.com/markets/...",
  "question": "Will ...?",
  "marketStatus": "OPEN",
  "resolutionCondition": "value > 80",
  "resolutionSourceName": "National Weather Service / NOAA station KNYC",
  "resolutionSourceUrl": "https://api.weather.gov/stations/KNYC/observations?...",
  "resolutionSourceType": "OFFICIAL_WEATHER_OBSERVATIONS",
  "observedValue": "82.0 °F",
  "observedAt": "2026-09-23T19:51:00Z",
  "sourcePublishedAt": "2026-09-23T19:51:00Z",
  "expectedOutcome": "YES",
  "resolutionState": "CONDITION_MET",
  "confidenceScore": 0.93,
  "confidenceLevel": "HIGH",
  "evidenceFreshness": "IN_PROGRESS",
  "sourceMatchConfidence": 0.96,
  "warnings": [],
  "evidence": []
}

Supported states:

UNRESOLVED, LIKELY_YES, LIKELY_NO, CONDITION_MET, CONDITION_NOT_MET, AWAITING_OFFICIAL_SOURCE, SOURCE_CONFLICT, DISPUTED, FINAL, UNKNOWN.

Important state semantics

CONDITION_MET means the official evidence currently satisfies the parsed market condition. It does not by itself mean the exchange has settled the contract.

FINAL is reserved for a final/resolved settlement only when the platform exposes an unambiguous YES/NO outcome or supported official evidence deterministically establishes the outcome. A closed/resolved flag by itself does not force FINAL. Polymarket markets can involve UMA challenge/dispute workflows; if platform metadata indicates a challenge/dispute and the market is not final, this Actor returns DISPUTED.

Pricing

Current event prices:

• apify-actor-start: $0.005 per run (one-time synthetic start event)
• resolution-evidence: $0.04 per supported market report (primary event)

The Actor checks the user's PPE spending limit before doing the official-source evidence work. A market that is obviously outside the V1.1 evidence families returns UNKNOWN without charging the resolution-evidence event.

API and agent workflows

Run the same input through Apify API or Apify MCP and retrieve one structured report per market from the run's default dataset. Use MONITOR with a stable monitorStateKey for repeat comparisons. Configure schedules and completion webhooks in your own Apify account.

POST https://api.apify.com/v2/actors/nrJ5xJfpDNvIuZrY8/runs
Authorization: Bearer YOUR_APIFY_TOKEN
Content-Type: application/json

The normal path uses public HTTP evidence sources without a browser, proxy, LLM or paid downstream Actor dependency. Unsupported or ambiguous markets remain explicitly unresolved.

Limitations

• V1.1 does not try to resolve arbitrary politics, sports, crypto, awards, or legal/news markets.
• Weather support is intentionally conservative when the exact official station cannot be identified from the rules. A small city-to-station fallback map is available but is explicitly downgraded in source-match confidence and emits a warning.
• The Weather Company connector only evaluates a market when it can deterministically extract the market's CLI... settlement location and identify the matching record in the official weather.com/kalshi response. If the value is not published yet, the Actor returns AWAITING_OFFICIAL_SOURCE rather than substituting NWS data.
• The Weather Company endpoint is treated as the settlement source only when the market rules declare it. NWS-settled weather markets continue to use official NWS/NOAA observations only.
• The TWC parser is intentionally schema-tolerant because the public weather.com/kalshi JSON shape may evolve; it anchors on the exact CLI... location code and metric names and refuses to use a different location's value.
• BLS series can be revised. The report describes the official evidence it retrieved; exchange settlement rules remain authoritative.
• The no-key BEA adapter is strongest for the latest GDP headline. It will not pretend a current headline proves a historical quarter.
• A parser ambiguity results in UNKNOWN/UNRESOLVED, not a guessed outcome.

This Actor provides resolution research and monitoring data, not financial advice.