Geopolitical Tension Monitor

Real-time geopolitical risk assessment combining news intelligence, governance indicators, travel advisories, trade data, and sanctions information.

What This Does

Analyzes any country's geopolitical risk by aggregating 5 authoritative public data sources:

• GDELT Project: Real-time news event data with sentiment analysis
• US State Department: Official travel advisory levels
• World Bank WGI: Governance indicators (political stability, voice & accountability, regulatory quality)
• UN Comtrade: International trade flow data
• US Treasury OFAC: Active sanctions and entity lists

Returns a composite tension score (0-100) where:

• 0-25: Low tension (stable, low risk)
• 25-50: Moderate tension (elevated caution recommended)
• 50-75: High tension (significant concerns)
• 75-100: Critical tension (extreme risk, active conflict/sanctions)

Input

{
  "countryCode": "UA"
}

• countryCode (required): Two-letter ISO country code (e.g., "UA" = Ukraine, "RU" = Russia, "TW" = Taiwan, "SG" = Singapore, "US" = United States)

Output

{
  "query": { "countryCode": "UA" },
  "gdelt": {
    "newsCount30d": 8420,
    "avgTone": -4.2,
    "topHeadlines": [
      {
        "date": "2026-04-08",
        "sourceUrl": "https://...",
        "tone": -6.5
      },
      ...
    ]
  },
  "stateDept": {
    "advisoryLevel": 4,
    "levelLabel": "Do Not Travel"
  },
  "worldBankWGI": {
    "politicalStability": -2.1,
    "voiceAccountability": 0.2,
    "regulatoryQuality": 0.5
  },
  "comtrade": {
    "totalExportsUsd": 41230000000,
    "yoyChange": -15.2
  },
  "ofac": {
    "activeSanctionsPrograms": 1,
    "sdnEntityCount": 1240
  },
  "tensionScore": 87,
  "sources": [
    "The GDELT Project (CC-BY 4.0)",
    "US Department of State (Public Domain)",
    "The World Bank WGI (CC-BY 4.0)",
    "UN Comtrade (CC-BY 3.0 IGO)",
    "US Treasury OFAC (Public Domain)"
  ],
  "disclaimer": "..."
}

How The Tension Score Works

Weighted formula combining 5 indicators:

Indicator	Weight	Interpretation
GDELT Average Tone	30%	Negative sentiment = higher tension
Political Stability Index	30%	Lower stability = higher tension
State Dept Advisory Level	20%	Higher level (1-4) = higher tension
Trade YoY Change	10%	Declining exports = higher tension (economic shock)
OFAC Sanctions Count	10%	Active programs = higher tension

Example:

• Ukraine (high conflict): GDELT tone -5.2, advisory level 4, PS index -2.0 → Score 87/100
• Singapore (stable): GDELT tone +1.2, advisory level 1, PS index +1.8 → Score 12/100

Data Sources & Attribution

All data is from publicly available sources:

1. GDELT Project (CC-BY 4.0)

   • Real-time global news event database
   • Covers 65+ languages, 200+ countries
   • Updated continuously, 30-day rolling window

2. US Department of State Travel Advisories (Public Domain, 17 U.S.C. § 105)

   • Official travel warnings and guidance
   • Levels: 1 (Normal), 2 (Increased Caution), 3 (Reconsider), 4 (Do Not Travel)

3. World Bank Worldwide Governance Indicators (CC-BY 4.0)

   • Institutional quality and governance measures
   • Covers 200+ countries annually
   • Indicators: Political Stability, Voice & Accountability, Regulatory Quality

4. UN Comtrade (CC-BY 3.0 IGO)

   • International merchandise trade statistics
   • 200+ countries, monthly updates

5. US Treasury OFAC Sanctions List (Public Domain)

   • Active sanctions programs
   • Specially Designated Nationals (SDN) list
   • Updated daily

Legal Disclaimer

⚠️ NOT geopolitical advice, travel advice, or investment guidance. This Actor provides historical data aggregation and analysis only.

• Does NOT predict conflicts, wars, or political events
• Does NOT recommend travel, trading, or investment decisions
• Does NOT replace official government travel warnings or diplomatic advisories
• Does NOT constitute legal, political, or risk management advice
• For active emergencies, consult: travel.state.gov
• Historical data does not predict future developments

Example Queries

High-Tension Country

apify call --input='{"countryCode":"UA"}'
# Expected score: 80-95 (active conflict)

Moderate-Tension Country

apify call --input='{"countryCode":"MX"}'
# Expected score: 40-60 (cartel activity, regional instability)

Stable Country

apify call --input='{"countryCode":"SG"}'
# Expected score: 5-20 (high stability, regional hub)

Pricing

• $0.20 USD per query (20% to Apify platform, 80% to developer)
• Billed only on successful queries
• No charge on API errors

API Integration

curl -X POST "https://api.apify.com/v2/acts/{actor-id}/runs" \
  -H "Authorization: Bearer $APIFY_TOKEN" \
  -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d '{
    "input": {
      "countryCode": "UA"
    }
  }'

Performance Notes

• First query: ~3-5 seconds (cold start)
• Subsequent queries: ~1-2 seconds
• Timeout: 30 seconds per run
• Rate limit: Governed by Apify platform

Supported Countries

Actor supports all 2-letter ISO country codes. Common geopolitical interest countries:

High-Risk: RU, IR, KP, SY, CU, VE, ZW, BY, MM Moderate-Risk: UA, PS, LB, YE, SO, MX, CO, TH, CN Stable: US, GB, FR, DE, CA, AU, NZ, SG, JP, KR, TW

See full list: ISO 3166-1 alpha-2 codes

Updates & Maintenance

• GDELT data: Real-time (updated continuously)
• World Bank WGI: Annual (latest year available)
• State Dept advisories: Manual updates from official source
• OFAC list: Daily from US Treasury
• Comtrade: Monthly updates with ~2 month lag

Support

For issues or questions:

• Documentation: See this README
• Data attribution: See "Data Sources & Attribution" section
• Terms of Use: Apify Platform ToS + individual data source licenses (all CC-BY or Public Domain)

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Version: 1.0
Last Updated: 2026-04-08
Developer: NtriqPRO
License: ISC (source code), CC-BY 4.0 + Public Domain (data)