🎯 Manifold Prediction Markets Scraper

🚀 Export live prediction markets from Manifold in seconds. Questions, current probabilities, volume, creator data, resolution status, and optional full descriptions. No API key, no registration.

🕒 Last updated: 2026-05-12 · 📊 Up to 30 fields per record · 🎯 100,000+ markets · 💰 Live probability + volume · 🔓 Public API

The Manifold Prediction Markets Scraper pulls live data from Manifold.markets, the leading play-money prediction-market platform where users forecast everything from elections to AI benchmarks. Each record returns up to 30 fields: market question, current probability, slug and ID, creator profile, created/close/last-bet timestamps, outcome type (binary, multi-choice, date, numeric), automated market maker (AMM) state, total volume, 24-hour volume, total liquidity, unique bettor count, internal pool balances, and optional full HTML and text descriptions.

The Actor supports two modes. list walks the chronological feed using cursor pagination. search runs full-text queries with filters for resolution status (open, closed, resolved, closing-this-week, etc.) and 8 sort options. Manifold is used by forecasters, journalists, researchers, and AI safety teams to crowdsource probability estimates on real-world events, making it a rich source of structured forecast data.

🎯 Target Audience	💡 Primary Use Cases
Forecasting researchers, journalists, AI safety teams, prediction-market arbitrageurs, calibration scientists, news aggregators, betting analysts	Probability-feed dashboards, AI benchmark tracking, calibration studies, election-night feeds, news-event forecasting, market sentiment indicators, machine-learning training data

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📋 What the Manifold Prediction Markets Scraper does

Two scraping modes plus rich filtering:

• 📋 List mode. Chronological feed across all public Manifold markets with cursor pagination.
• 🔍 Search mode. Full-text query with 8 sort orders (score, newest, liquidity, subsidy, last-updated, most-popular, resolve-date, close-date).
• 🏷️ State filters. All, open, closed, resolved, closing this month/week/day.
• 📝 Optional descriptions. Toggle fetchDescriptions to fetch full HTML and plain-text descriptions per market.

Each market record includes a stable market ID, canonical URL, exact question text, slug, creator ID/username/name/avatar, four timestamps (created, close, last-updated, last-bet), outcome type, mechanism (cpmm-1, cpmm-multi-1, etc.), resolution status with optional resolution value and probability, current probability, lifetime volume, 24-hour volume, total liquidity, unique bettor count, and the internal AMM pool state. With fetchDescriptions, you also get full HTML and plain-text market descriptions, optional answers array for multi-choice markets, group slugs, token symbol, and AMM configuration flags.

💡 Why it matters: prediction markets aggregate distributed knowledge into a single probability number. Manifold is the largest play-money platform with hundreds of new markets per day. Building a forecast feed yourself means parsing JSON, paging through cursors, and managing rate limits. This Actor returns clean structured rows ready for dashboards, calibration studies, or AI agent context windows.

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🎬 Full Demo

🚧 Coming soon: a 3-minute walkthrough showing how to go from sign-up to a downloaded prediction-markets dataset.

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⚙️ Input

Input	Type	Default	Behavior
mode	string	"list"	Either list for the chronological feed or search for full-text search.
query	string	""	For search mode. Free-text search across market questions.
sort	string	"score"	One of score, newest, liquidity, subsidy, last-updated, most-popular, resolve-date, close-date.
filter	string	""	State filter. Empty = all. Options: open, closed, resolved, closing-month, closing-week, closing-day.
fetchDescriptions	boolean	false	When true, fetches full HTML and plain-text description per market. One extra API call per record.
maxItems	integer	10	Records to return. Free plan caps at 10, paid plan at 1,000,000.

Example: latest 200 open markets.

{
    "mode": "list",
    "maxItems": 200
}

Example: search for AI-related markets with full descriptions.

{
    "mode": "search",
    "query": "AI",
    "sort": "most-popular",
    "filter": "open",
    "fetchDescriptions": true,
    "maxItems": 100
}

⚠️ Good to Know: probabilities are point-in-time and drift continuously as bettors trade. For accurate historical series, schedule the Actor on an interval. Multi-choice market probabilities are returned per-answer when fetchDescriptions is on.

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📊 Output

Each market record contains up to 30 fields depending on outcome type and fetchDescriptions flag. Download the dataset as CSV, Excel, JSON, or XML.

🧾 Schema

Field	Type	Example
🆔 id	string	"n0h0uppcyl"
🔗 url	string	"https://manifold.markets/arnv/will-brent-crude-oil-..."
❓ question	string	"Will Brent Crude Oil close above $110 on May 15th, 2026?"
🔗 slug	string	"will-brent-crude-oil-close-above-11-h9QuZ8SQCq"
🆔 creatorId	string	"kfh173b1eWb6FZdNVet6wDYm1YH3"
👤 creatorUsername	string | null	"arnv"
👤 creatorName	string | null	"arnav"
🖼️ creatorAvatarUrl	string | null	"https://storage.googleapis.com/.../ngQcz5QZ.png"
📅 createdTime	ISO 8601 | null	"2026-05-12T15:27:16.479Z"
📅 closeTime	ISO 8601 | null	"2026-05-15T23:59:00.000Z"
📅 lastUpdatedTime	ISO 8601 | null	"2026-05-12T16:23:26.767Z"
📅 lastBetTime	ISO 8601 | null	"2026-05-12T16:23:26.767Z"
🎲 outcomeType	string | null	"BINARY"
⚙️ mechanism	string | null	"cpmm-1"
✅ isResolved	boolean | null	false
🏁 resolution	string | undefined	"YES"
📊 resolutionProbability	number | undefined	0.95
📈 probability	number | null	0.43686192415738545
💰 volume	number | null	30
💰 volume24Hours	number | null	20
💧 totalLiquidity	number | null	250
👥 uniqueBettorCount	number | null	2
🏊 pool	object | null	{"NO": 207.08, "YES": 220.12}
🔢 p	number | undefined	0.4519406403830469
💵 token	string | undefined	"MANA"
➕ shouldAnswersSumToOne	boolean | undefined	true
➕ addAnswersMode	string | undefined	"DISABLED"
📝 answers	array | undefined	[{"id":"a","text":"...","probability":0.6}]
🏷️ groupSlugs	string[] | undefined	["politics","2026-election"]
📝 description	string | undefined	"<p>Full HTML description...</p>"
📝 textDescription	string | undefined	"Plain text description..."
🕒 scrapedAt	ISO 8601	"2026-05-12T16:30:27.593Z"

📦 Sample records

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✨ Why choose this Actor

	Capability
🎯	Live probabilities. Current crowd-sourced probability for every public market.
📋	Two modes. List for chronological feed, search for query-driven discovery.
🏷️	Rich state filters. Open, closed, resolved, or closing within a specific window.
🔢	8 sort orders. Score, newest, liquidity, subsidy, last-updated, most-popular, resolve-date, close-date.
💧	AMM pool data. Internal pool object exposes the YES/NO balances driving the price.
📝	Optional descriptions. Toggle fetchDescriptions for HTML and plain-text per market.
🔓	No login or API key. Manifold's API is fully public and free.

📊 Manifold hosts 100,000+ play-money prediction markets covering elections, science, AI benchmarks, pop culture, and personal predictions.

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📈 How it compares to alternatives

Approach	Cost	Coverage	Refresh	Filters	Setup
⭐ Manifold Prediction Markets Scraper (this Actor)	$5 free credit, then pay-per-use	100,000+ markets	Live per run	mode, query, sort, filter, descriptions	⚡ 2 min
Paid forecasting platforms	$99+/month	Curated	Daily	Vendor-defined	⏳ Hours
Manual API calls in code	Free	DIY	Live	Code-defined	🛠️ Hours
Legacy CSV dumps	Free	Stale	Rarely	None	🐢 Days

Pick this Actor when you want live prediction-market feeds with filters and pagination handled for you.

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🚀 How to use

1. 📝 Sign up. Create a free account with $5 credit (takes 2 minutes).
2. 🌐 Open the Actor. Go to the Manifold Prediction Markets Scraper page on the Apify Store.
3. 🎯 Set input. Pick list or search, optionally add a query, sort, filter, and maxItems.
4. 🚀 Run it. Click Start and let the Actor walk the markets feed.
5. 📥 Download. Grab your results in the Dataset tab as CSV, Excel, JSON, or XML.

⏱️ Total time from signup to downloaded dataset: 3-5 minutes. No coding required.

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💼 Business use cases

📊 Forecasting Research Calibration studies on crowd-sourced probabilities Bias analyses across question categories Comparison of AMM vs continuous double auction outcomes Forecast accuracy benchmarks	📰 News & Journalism Election-night live probability dashboards Story-event probability tracking over time Embed probability charts into news articles Sentiment indicators for breaking news
🤖 AI & ML Training data for forecasting LLMs Real-time market signals for agent context windows AI benchmark resolution tracking AI safety market monitoring	💰 Markets & Arbitrage Cross-platform price comparison Liquidity-weighted index construction Volume-leader watchlists Market-maker subsidy tracking

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🌟 Beyond business use cases

Data like this powers more than commercial workflows. The same structured records support research, education, civic projects, and personal initiatives.

🎓 Research and academia Empirical datasets for papers, thesis work, and coursework Longitudinal studies tracking changes across snapshots Reproducible research with cited, versioned data pulls Classroom exercises on data analysis and ethical scraping	🎨 Personal and creative Side projects, portfolio demos, and indie app launches Data visualizations, dashboards, and infographics Content research for bloggers, YouTubers, and podcasters Hobbyist collections and personal trackers
🤝 Non-profit and civic Transparency reporting and accountability projects Advocacy campaigns backed by public-interest data Community-run databases for local issues Investigative journalism on public records	🧪 Experimentation Prototype AI and machine-learning pipelines with real data Validate product-market hypotheses before engineering spend Train small domain-specific models on niche corpora Test dashboard concepts with live input

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🔌 Automating Manifold Prediction Markets Scraper

Control the scraper programmatically for scheduled runs and pipeline integrations:

• 🟢 Node.js. Install the apify-client NPM package.
• 🐍 Python. Use the apify-client PyPI package.
• 📚 See the Apify API documentation for full details.

The Apify Schedules feature lets you trigger this Actor on any cron interval. Hourly or daily refreshes keep forecast dashboards and calibration studies updated automatically.

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❓ Frequently Asked Questions

🧩 How does it work?

Pick list for the chronological feed or search for full-text search, optionally add filters, click Start, and the Actor walks the Manifold public API using cursor pagination and emits a clean structured record per market.

📈 What is probability?

The current crowd-implied probability between 0 and 1 of the market resolving YES (for binary markets). It updates continuously as bettors trade. For multi-choice and DATE markets, the field is null and answer-level probabilities arrive in answers when fetchDescriptions is on.

🎲 What outcome types are there?

BINARY (yes/no), MULTIPLE_CHOICE, NUMERIC, DATE, PSEUDO_NUMERIC, and STONK (stock-like markets). The mechanism field shows whether the market uses CPMM-1, CPMM-MULTI-1, or DPM.

💧 What is the pool object?

The internal automated-market-maker (AMM) reserve. For binary CPMM markets it shows YES and NO token balances; the ratio drives the implied probability. Useful for calibration research and liquidity studies.

🔁 How often is the data refreshed?

Every run pulls live data. Markets move continuously, so for accurate time-series data schedule the Actor at the granularity you need (hourly, every 15 minutes, etc.).

⏰ Can I schedule regular runs?

Yes. Use Apify Schedules to run this Actor on any cron interval (hourly, daily, weekly) and keep a downstream database in sync.

⚖️ Is this data legal to use?

Manifold's API and data are publicly available. The platform uses play-money (MANA), not real currency, so prediction-market regulation concerns generally do not apply. Review Manifold's terms for redistribution rules.

💼 Can I use this data commercially?

Yes. Public prediction-market data is commonly used for analytics, dashboards, and research. Manifold encourages downstream use of its API for non-abusive purposes. Respect their rate limits.

💳 Do I need a paid Apify plan to use this Actor?

No. The free Apify plan is enough for testing and small runs (10 records per run). A paid plan lifts the limit and gives you access to scheduling, higher concurrency, and larger datasets.

🔁 What happens if a run fails or gets interrupted?

Apify automatically retries transient errors. If a run still fails, you can inspect the log in the Runs tab, fix the input, and re-run. Partial datasets from failed runs are preserved so you never lose progress.

🆘 What if I need help?

Our support team is here to help. Contact us through the Apify platform or use the Tally form linked below.

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🔌 Integrate with any app

Manifold Prediction Markets Scraper connects to any cloud service via Apify integrations:

• Make - Automate multi-step workflows
• Zapier - Connect with 5,000+ apps
• Slack - Get run notifications in your channels
• Airbyte - Pipe market data into your warehouse
• GitHub - Trigger runs from commits and releases
• Google Drive - Export datasets straight to Sheets

You can also use webhooks to trigger downstream actions when a run finishes. Push fresh forecast data into your dashboard, or alert your team in Slack when a key probability crosses a threshold.

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💡 Pro Tip: browse the complete ParseForge collection for more forecasting and community-data scrapers.

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🆘 Need Help? Open our contact form to request a new scraper, propose a custom data project, or report an issue.

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⚠️ Disclaimer: this Actor is an independent tool and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or sponsored by Manifold Markets Inc. or its users. All trademarks mentioned are the property of their respective owners. Only publicly available market data is collected. Manifold uses play-money tokens (MANA), not real currency.