Polymarket Wallet P&L Analyzer

Docs & recipes: pricing math, use-case playbooks and copy-paste API/MCP snippets · practical guide

Verify a Polymarket wallet's claimed P&L before you copy-trade it. Paste any wallet address; one run returns a reconstructed trading record built purely from the public trade tape (illustrative example):

{
  "record_type": "summary",
  "wallet": "0xd3bc202269d0bbd1a158264be8f7e1e0f9e45bd2",
  "window_days": 30,
  "trades_analyzed": 481,
  "markets_traded": 37,
  "realized_pnl_usd": 12840.55,
  "resolved_markets": 29,
  "wins": 19,
  "win_rate": 0.6552,
  "open_markets": 6,
  "mint_excluded_markets": 2,
  "two_sided_share": 0.081,
  "avg_entry_price": 0.6421,
  "category_mix": {"Crypto": 0.71, "Politics": 0.22, "Sports": 0.07},
  "coverage_capped": false,
  "earliest_trade_covered_utc": "2026-07-05T11:02:44+00:00"
}

Found a wallet moving size on a whale tracker or a leaderboard? Run it through this analyzer first: is the P&L real, is the win rate built on resolved markets, and is the "trader" actually a hedger you should never follow?

What makes this analysis trustworthy

Most "profit leaderboards" hide their method. This Actor is explicit about its accounting — and about its blind spots:

• Net-position accounting — BUYs and SELLs are aggregated per market and per outcome token; resolved markets settle remaining net shares at $1 (winner) / $0 (loser) using public on-chain resolutions from the CLOB's per-token winner flags (which stay available even after Polymarket archives a market's listing).
• Negative-risk mint detection — wallets that acquire outcome shares through the neg-risk adapter show up on the tape as selling shares they never bought. Naively counting those sells fabricates profit. Markets where sell volume exceeds buy volume by 1.5× are flagged excluded_mint and kept out of realized P&L.
• Honest coverage flags — the public tape caps pagination depth (~3,000 trades per query). If a wallet out-trades the cap, the report says so (coverage_capped: true, plus a coverage_note stating exactly which time span the stats cover) instead of silently pretending it's the full window.
• Open positions never inflate P&L — unresolved markets are reported separately with net shares and cost basis; realized P&L and win rate count only resolved markets.

Output fields

One summary row per run (also stored as the run's OUTPUT record):

Field	Type	Meaning
record_type	string	"summary"
wallet	string	Analyzed proxy wallet (lowercased)
window_days	integer	Requested window
trades_analyzed / markets_traded	integer	Tape coverage
realized_pnl_usd	number	Settled P&L over resolved markets only
resolved_markets / wins / win_rate	number	Win rate = wins / resolved (null if none resolved)
open_markets	integer	Unresolved markets held in window
mint_excluded_markets	integer	Markets excluded by neg-risk mint detection
two_sided_markets / two_sided_share	number	Markets where the wallet bought 2+ outcomes (hedging/making)
avg_entry_price	number	Share-weighted average buy price across all markets
total_buy_volume_usd	number	Gross buy flow
category_mix	object	Buy-volume share by market category, e.g. {"Crypto": 0.71}
coverage_capped / coverage_note	bool / string	Honesty flags for tape-depth truncation
earliest_trade_covered_utc / generated_at_utc	ISO date	Exact analysis span

Plus one market row per market traded:

Field	Type	Meaning
record_type	string	"market"
market_title / market_slug / condition_id	string	Market identity
category	string	Market category from public tags
status	string	resolved | open | excluded_mint
trades	integer	Fill count in window
buy_shares / buy_usd / sell_shares / sell_usd	number	Gross flow in the window
avg_entry_price	number	Share-weighted average buy price
net_shares	number	Position remaining at resolution (or now, if open)
two_sided	boolean	Wallet bought 2+ outcomes of this market
winning_outcome	string | null	Resolved winner
realized_pnl_usd	number | null	Settled P&L (resolved markets only)
win	boolean | null	Whether the market ended profitable
first_trade_utc / last_trade_utc	ISO date	Activity span in this market

Market rows are sorted by realized P&L (best first); fields not applicable are null, never missing.

Input

Field	Default	Description
wallet	(a known active whale wallet, for demo)	0x… Polymarket proxy wallet address — copy it from any Polymarket profile URL or a whale-trades dataset
days	30	Analysis window, counting back from now (1–365)
include_open_positions	true	Also output unresolved-market rows

A zero-config run works (it analyzes the demo wallet); real use is one call per wallet you're vetting.

Use cases

Copy-trading due diligence

Is that "hot" wallet actually profitable over resolved markets, or is its P&L a minting artifact? Is it a hedger/market-maker you shouldn't follow? two_sided_share and mint_excluded_markets answer that directly.

Leaderboard verification

Independently reconstruct claimed profits from public data instead of trusting a screenshot.

Research at scale

Feed a list of wallets from a whale-trades run, one Actor call each, and rank by realized P&L and win rate.

Using from Claude / AI agents (MCP)

Add Apify's MCP server (https://mcp.apify.com) to Claude, Cursor, or any MCP-capable client and your agent can vet a trader with real numbers mid-conversation:

{
  "tool": "polymarket-wallet-pnl",
  "input": { "wallet": "0xd3bc202269d0bbd1a158264be8f7e1e0f9e45bd2", "days": 30 }
}

"Is wallet 0xd3bc… worth copying?" — one call returns realized P&L, win rate, hedging share, and the coverage caveats an honest answer needs.

Pricing

Pay per event: $0.35 per wallet analyzed, flat. The price is the same whether the wallet has 5 trades or 3,000 — full tape reconstruction, resolution lookups, and the report included. Worked example: vetting a shortlist of 20 candidate wallets costs $7.00.

Honest limits

• Realized P&L only: open positions are listed with cost basis but never marked to market.
• Deposits/withdrawals, rewards, and off-tape transfers are out of scope by design — this reconstructs the tape, not the account.
• The public tape caps history depth (~3,000 trades per query); hyperactive wallets get a truthful coverage_capped report covering the most recent span, not a silent undercount.
• Mint detection is a threshold heuristic (sells > 1.5× buys); flagged markets are excluded rather than guessed at.

Data source and fair use

Only Polymarket's public, unauthenticated APIs are used (trade tape + CLOB market resolutions). No keys, no login. Addresses analyzed are already public on polymarket.com. Results are estimates reconstructed from public fills.