Cross-Platform Arbitrage & Resolution Rules Lawyer

Finds fine-print divergences between two prediction markets (e.g. Polymarket vs Kalshi), prices basis risk after fees, and returns verdict.action ARBITRAGE_SAFE / LOW_ANNUALIZED_YIELD / BASIS_RISK_TRAP / NO_EDGE / INSUFFICIENT_EVIDENCE with edge in bps, the probability both legs lose, days to resolution, annualized return and Kelly hedge size capped by top-of-book depth. Each market can be given as a Polymarket slug or URL or a Kalshi ticker (rules, best asks and per-leg fees are read live) or as pasted rules and prices (USD per share, 0-1). Every cited clause is checked verbatim against the rules you supplied. If the rules analysis fails after live prices were read, you still get the signed price math as a partial result. Not financial advice.

Every result is a signed, verifiable answer:

• a W3C Verifiable Credential 2.0, signed with eddsa-jcs-2022 by did:web:agents.writerslogic.com;
• a C2PA-style manifest that lists every source the agent read, each with its SHA-256;
• an EIP-191 co-signature over the same digest.

Change one byte and verification fails, so you can pass the result to a client, an auditor or another agent and they can check it without trusting you or us.

How to use Cross-Platform Arbitrage & Resolution Rules Lawyer

1. Fill in the input form. Required fields are marked; the form opens with a working example.
2. Start the run.
3. Read the result in the Output tab, or download the dataset as JSON. The full signed envelope is also saved as the OUTPUT record in the key-value store.

Input

Field	Required	Description
marketA	yes
marketB	yes
minEdgeBps	no	Default 100 (1%).
bankrollUsd	no	Used to convert the Kelly fraction to USD.
minAnnualizedReturnPct	no	Minimum annualized risk-adjusted return, in percent, for verdict.action ARBITRAGE_SAFE (default 5). Below it the action is LOW_ANNUALIZED_YIELD. Applied only when both end dates are known.

Example input:

{
  "marketA": {
    "platform": "Polymarket",
    "title": "Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2027?",
    "resolutionRules": "This market will resolve to Yes if any Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT between Jan 1, 2027 00:00 and Dec 31, 2027 23:59 ET has a final High price of $150,000 or higher. Otherwise it resolves to No. The resolution source is Binance BTC/USDT with the 1m candle selected.",
    "yesPrice": 0.31,
    "noPrice": 0.7,
    "feeBps": 0,
    "endDate": "2027-12-31T23:59:00-05:00"
  },
  "marketB": {
    "platform": "Kalshi",
    "title": "Bitcoin price at the end of 2027: above $150,000?",
    "resolutionRules": "If the CF Benchmarks BRTI price at 5:00 PM EST on December 31, 2027 is above $150,000, then the market resolves to Yes. Otherwise it resolves to No. The Source Agency is CF Benchmarks; the value is the average BRTI over the 60 seconds before the expiration time.",
    "yesPrice": 0.22,
    "noPrice": 0.79,
    "yesFeeBps": 546,
    "noFeeBps": 147,
    "endDate": "2027-12-31T17:00:00-05:00"
  },
  "minEdgeBps": 100,
  "bankrollUsd": 10000
}

Output

{
  "agent": "arbitrage-lawyer",
  "priceUsd": 0.94,
  "data": { "...": "the agent's answer" },
  "_provenance": { "credential": {}, "manifest": {}, "ethSignature": "0x..." }
}

To check a result for free, POST { "data": ..., "_provenance": ... } to https://agents.writerslogic.com/api/v1/verify-provenance, or verify it offline against the public key in the DID document.

Pricing

$0.94 per successful run, charged once and only after the agent returns its answer. If the input is rejected or the agent fails, you are not charged for the call.

Use it from code or an AI assistant

• Apify API and integrations: call this Actor from Make, Zapier, n8n, LangChain or the Apify API like any other Actor.
• MCP: npx -y @writerslogic/ai-agents-mcp exposes this agent and the rest of the hub as tools.
• x402: the same agent is available at POST https://agents.writerslogic.com/api/v1/arbitrage-lawyer, paid per call in USDC on Base.

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FAQ

Who runs this? WritersLogic. The agent runs on the WritersLogic Verifiable AI Agent Hub; this Actor sends your input there and returns the signed result.

Is my input stored? The Actor stores your result in your own Apify storage. Ask before sending confidential documents; the hub is a third-party service from your point of view.