Prediction Market Analyzer

Independent probability that a Polymarket or Kalshi market resolves Yes, checked against the live book. Pass a market (slug, URL, conditionId or Kalshi ticker) and/or news text: the agent reads the rules, end date and best asks, estimates 0-100 with live web search (falling back to model knowledge if search is slow), and returns verdict.action BUY_YES / BUY_NO / NO_TRADE with edge in bps after taker fees, a confidence gate, quarter-Kelly size and sourced factors for and against. Resolved markets return their outcome without a model call. Not financial advice.

Every result is a signed, verifiable answer:

• a W3C Verifiable Credential 2.0, signed with eddsa-jcs-2022 by did:web:agents.writerslogic.com;
• a C2PA-style manifest that lists every source the agent read, each with its SHA-256;
• an EIP-191 co-signature over the same digest.

Change one byte and verification fails, so you can pass the result to a client, an auditor or another agent and they can check it without trusting you or us.

How to use Prediction Market Analyzer

1. Fill in the input form. Required fields are marked; the form opens with a working example.
2. Start the run.
3. Read the result in the Output tab, or download the dataset as JSON. The full signed envelope is also saved as the OUTPUT record in the key-value store.

Input

Field	Required	Description
text	no	News excerpt or event description. Required unless market is given; with market, extra evidence you want weighed.
question	no	Exact market question; inferred when omitted (read from the market when market is given).
market	no	Polymarket slug, market URL or conditionId, or a Kalshi ticker or URL. Reads the question, rules, end date and live best asks; marketPriceYes then defaults to the book mid. A resolved market returns its outcome without a model call.
minEdgePct	no	Minimum edge after taker fees, in percentage points, before verdict.action is BUY_YES or BUY_NO (default 5). A low-confidence estimate never produces a BUY.
bankrollUsd	no	Converts the quarter-Kelly fraction into verdict.size_usd.
marketPriceYes	no	Current implied Yes probability, used to compute edge. Percent (0-100) by default; a value strictly between 0 and 1 is read as a 0-1 market price (Polymarket/Kalshi style) unless marketPriceScale says otherwise.
marketPriceScale	no	Force the unit of marketPriceYes: percent (35 = 35%) or fraction (0.35 = 35%).

Example input:

{
  "market": "will-jd-vance-win-the-2028-us-presidential-election",
  "minEdgePct": 5,
  "bankrollUsd": 10000
}

Output

{
  "agent": "market-predictor",
  "priceUsd": 0.13,
  "data": { "...": "the agent's answer" },
  "_provenance": { "credential": {}, "manifest": {}, "ethSignature": "0x..." }
}

To check a result for free, POST { "data": ..., "_provenance": ... } to https://agents.writerslogic.com/api/v1/verify-provenance, or verify it offline against the public key in the DID document.

Pricing

$0.13 per successful run, charged once and only after the agent returns its answer. If the input is rejected or the agent fails, you are not charged for the call.

Use it from code or an AI assistant

• Apify API and integrations: call this Actor from Make, Zapier, n8n, LangChain or the Apify API like any other Actor.
• MCP: npx -y @writerslogic/ai-agents-mcp exposes this agent and the rest of the hub as tools.
• x402: the same agent is available at POST https://agents.writerslogic.com/api/v1/predict-market, paid per call in USDC on Base.

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• Prediction-Market Clarification Impact Pricer
• UMA Dispute EV Desk
• All agents in one Actor

FAQ

Who runs this? WritersLogic. The agent runs on the WritersLogic Verifiable AI Agent Hub; this Actor sends your input there and returns the signed result.

Is my input stored? The Actor stores your result in your own Apify storage. Ask before sending confidential documents; the hub is a third-party service from your point of view.