Fear & Greed Index Backtester

What does Fear & Greed Index Backtester do?

Fear & Greed Index Backtester downloads up to 365 days of historical Crypto Fear & Greed Index readings from alternative.me and correlates them with Bitcoin price movements from CoinGecko. It computes forward returns (1-day, 7-day, 30-day) for each sentiment zone — extreme fear through extreme greed — to validate or refute the "buy the fear" contrarian trading strategy.

The actor delivers a current trading signal based on today's Fear & Greed reading, statistical win rates by zone, and a complete daily data export ready for spreadsheet analysis or backtesting integration.

Why use Fear & Greed Index Backtester?

• Quantified contrarian strategy: Know exactly how often buying extreme fear (0–24) has led to positive BTC returns over 1, 7, and 30 days — not just anecdotally, but from the full data set
• Win rates and averages by zone: Compare extreme fear vs greed zones across all three forward windows to see which signal is statistically strongest
• Today's signal with context: The current contrarian recommendation (strong_buy / reduce / etc.) is backed by historical base rates, not just intuition
• Full daily export: Every FNG reading paired with actual BTC price and realized forward returns — ready for your own analysis
• No API key needed: Runs immediately with no configuration required; alternative.me and CoinGecko APIs are both public

How to use Fear & Greed Index Backtester

1. Go to the Apify Store and find Fear & Greed Index Backtester
2. Click Try for free — no API keys or accounts needed
3. Optionally set lookbackDays to limit the backtest window (default: 365)
4. Click Run — results appear in seconds
5. Review the first record (summary + backtest stats) and individual daily rows via JSON export or API

Input

Field	Type	Default	Description
lookbackDays	integer	365	Historical days to include (30–365 max)

Output

[
  {
    "current_date": "2026-09-02",
    "current_value": 31,
    "current_label": "fear",
    "current_signal": {
      "action": "buy",
      "rationale": "Fear zone. Historically positive 30d forward returns. Accumulate."
    },
    "backtest_days": 365,
    "earliest_date": "2025-09-02",
    "zone_distribution": {
      "extreme_fear": 28,
      "fear": 87,
      "neutral": 45,
      "greed": 143,
      "extreme_greed": 62
    },
    "extreme_fear_30d_avg_return_pct": 18.4,
    "extreme_fear_30d_win_rate_pct": 74.1,
    "extreme_greed_30d_avg_return_pct": -3.7,
    "extreme_greed_30d_win_rate_pct": 39.2,
    "forward_returns_30d": {
      "extreme_fear": {"sample_count": 28, "avg_return_pct": 18.4, "win_rate_pct": 74.1},
      "fear": {"sample_count": 87, "avg_return_pct": 9.1, "win_rate_pct": 63.2},
      "neutral": {"sample_count": 45, "avg_return_pct": 4.2, "win_rate_pct": 57.8},
      "greed": {"sample_count": 143, "avg_return_pct": 2.1, "win_rate_pct": 51.0},
      "extreme_greed": {"sample_count": 62, "avg_return_pct": -3.7, "win_rate_pct": 39.2}
    },
    "as_of": "2026-09-02T12:00:00Z"
  },
  {
    "date": "2026-09-02",
    "fng_value": 31,
    "fng_label": "fear",
    "fng_zone": "fear",
    "btc_price": 62450.81,
    "return_1d": 1.42,
    "return_7d": 5.18,
    "return_30d": null
  }
]

Data fields

Summary record (first row):

Field	Description
current_value	Today's Fear & Greed Index value (0–100)
current_label	Zone label (extreme_fear, fear, neutral, greed, extreme_greed)
current_signal	Contrarian action and rationale
zone_distribution	Count of days spent in each zone over the backtest period
forward_returns_1d/7d/30d	Full zone-by-zone stats for each forward window
extreme_fear_30d_avg_return_pct	Average 30-day BTC return when FNG was in extreme fear
extreme_fear_30d_win_rate_pct	% of extreme fear days where 30d BTC return was positive
extreme_greed_30d_avg_return_pct	Average 30-day BTC return when FNG was in extreme greed
extreme_greed_30d_win_rate_pct	% of extreme greed days with positive 30d return

Daily data rows:

Field	Description
date	Date (YYYY-MM-DD)
fng_value	Fear & Greed reading for that day (0–100)
fng_zone	Zone classification
btc_price	BTC closing price in USD
return_1d/7d/30d	Actual BTC % return over that forward window from this date

Cost estimation

Pricing: $0.02 per run (flat rate — always one complete backtest)

Scenario	Frequency	Monthly cost
One-time check	Once	$0.02
Weekly strategy review	4×/month	$0.08
Daily signal monitoring	30×/month	$0.60

FAQ

Is this proof that the contrarian strategy works? No — this actor shows historical correlations, not guaranteed future returns. BTC price behavior changes with market conditions. Use the data as one input among many, not as a trading strategy in isolation.

Why might extreme fear show high win rates but still lose money? Even with a 74% win rate, the losing 26% of cases can include severe drawdowns. The average return and win rate together tell a more complete story than either metric alone.

Can I export the daily data to Excel or Google Sheets? Yes — after the actor run, use the Apify dataset export (CSV/JSON) directly from the console, or connect via the Apify API with an integration such as Google Sheets Apify integration.

Disclaimer: This actor provides historical statistical analysis for educational and research purposes only. Past performance of a trading signal is not indicative of future results. Nothing in this output constitutes financial or investment advice.

Keywords: crypto fear and greed index backtest, buy the fear strategy, BTC sentiment indicator, alternative.me fear greed history, crypto contrarian trading, fear greed index correlation, Bitcoin sentiment backtest, extreme fear buy signal, greed sell signal crypto, FNG historical data

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Related actors

• Crypto Social Sentiment Aggregator — Live Fear & Greed index alongside Reddit and LunarCrush sentiment for real-time complement
• Crypto Market Breadth — Advance/decline breadth signal to validate Fear & Greed contrarian timing with market internals
• Bitcoin On-Chain Metrics — MVRV, NUPL, and exchange netflow to pair with sentiment backtesting for full signal stack

Feedback

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Keywords: fear greed backtester, crypto sentiment backtest, Fear Greed Index trading, BTC forward returns, crypto sentiment signal, contrarian trading, sentiment zones, extreme fear trading, crypto backtest, sentiment analysis crypto, trading signal backtest, BTC sentiment, market sentiment