Manifold Markets Prediction Tracker

Manifold Markets Prediction Tracker — Browse & Search Any Prediction Market

Fetch live prediction market data from Manifold Markets, the open and free prediction market platform where anyone can create and trade on any question — AI, crypto, politics, sports, science, technology, and more. No API key required.

Track market probabilities, trader activity, volume, and resolution status for any topic. Search by keyword, filter by topic group, or look up specific markets by slug or ID.

What You Get

For each market, the actor returns:

• Question and URL — the full market question and direct link
• Current probability % — for binary (yes/no) markets, the implied probability
• Outcome type — BINARY, MULTIPLE_CHOICE, PSEUDO_NUMERIC, POLL
• Top answers — for multiple-choice markets, each option with probability
• Resolution — YES, NO, N/A, or specific answer for resolved markets
• Trader count — number of unique bettors
• Volume — total trading volume (in mana, Manifold's play money)
• 24h volume — recent activity indicator
• Total liquidity — market liquidity depth
• Topic groups — which topic categories the market belongs to
• Timestamps — created, close, and resolved dates

Input Parameters

Parameter	Type	Default	Description
mode	string	"trending"	"trending" to browse, "search" to find by keyword, "specific" for exact markets
sort	string	"score"	Sort order: score, newest, most-popular, 24-hour-vol, liquidity, close-date
limit	integer	50	Max markets to return (max 1000)
searchTerm	string	—	Keyword for search mode (e.g. "bitcoin", "AGI", "election")
groupSlug	string	—	Topic filter: "ai", "crypto", "politics", "sports", "science"
marketSlugs	array	[]	Specific market slugs for direct lookup
marketIds	array	[]	Specific market IDs for direct lookup

Sample Output

{
  "id": "abc123",
  "question": "Will Bitcoin exceed $150,000 by end of 2025?",
  "url": "https://manifold.markets/user/will-bitcoin-exceed-150k",
  "creator_username": "cryptotrader",
  "outcome_type": "BINARY",
  "probability_pct": 38.5,
  "answers": null,
  "resolution": null,
  "is_resolved": false,
  "trader_count": 847,
  "volume_24h": 1240.50,
  "volume_total": 58420.0,
  "total_liquidity": 5000.0,
  "group_slugs": ["crypto", "bitcoin"],
  "created_at": "2024-11-01T10:00:00Z",
  "close_at": "2025-12-31T23:59:00Z",
  "resolved_at": null,
  "description_text": "Resolves YES if Bitcoin's price reaches or exceeds $150,000..."
}

Multiple-Choice Market Example

{
  "question": "Which AI lab will release the strongest model in Q1 2026?",
  "outcome_type": "MULTIPLE_CHOICE",
  "probability_pct": null,
  "answers": [
    {"text": "OpenAI", "probability_pct": 42.0},
    {"text": "Anthropic", "probability_pct": 31.5},
    {"text": "Google DeepMind", "probability_pct": 18.2},
    {"text": "xAI", "probability_pct": 8.3}
  ]
}

Topic Groups

Filter by groupSlug to get markets in a specific topic:

groupSlug	Description
ai	Artificial intelligence, LLMs, AGI
crypto	Cryptocurrency, DeFi, blockchain
politics	Elections, policy, government
sports	Game outcomes, championships
science	Research, technology breakthroughs
finance	Stocks, economy, markets
fun	Memes, pop culture

Use Cases

• Research aggregation — pull AI/tech/crypto community consensus forecasts
• Political analysis — track election and policy market probabilities
• Calibration training — build datasets of prediction market questions + outcomes for ML
• Trend detection — monitor what topics are generating the most trading activity
• Crowd intelligence — compare market probabilities across different question types
• Academic research — study prediction market behavior and accuracy

About Manifold Markets

Manifold Markets is a free prediction market platform where users trade with "mana" (play money). Markets are community-created and cover virtually any question. The platform is particularly popular in the AI research, tech, and rationalist communities, with thousands of active markets and a strong track record of calibrated predictions.

Pricing

Pay-per-event: $0.002 per market returned (~$0.10 for 50 markets, $0.50 for 250).

FAQ

Is Manifold Markets real money? No — Manifold uses "mana" (M), a play-money currency. Markets are for fun and calibration training, not financial gain.

How accurate are the predictions? Manifold markets have shown reasonable calibration on many topics, particularly in tech and AI. Markets with higher volume tend to be more accurate.

Can I fetch all markets on any topic? Yes — use groupSlug to filter by topic or searchTerm to keyword-search. With limit: 1000 you can pull up to 1,000 markets per run.

Are resolved markets included? Yes — by default, both open and resolved markets are returned. Filter in your pipeline using the is_resolved field.

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Related actors

• Metaculus Forecast Tracker — Research-grade calibrated forecasts from Metaculus to compare with Manifold market probabilities
• Crypto News Sentiment Analyzer — News sentiment to pair with Manifold crypto/AI market predictions
• Federal Reserve Rate Probability — CME-derived rate probabilities to compare with Manifold interest rate prediction markets

Feedback

If this actor helps your prediction market research, a review helps others find it: Leave a review on Apify Store

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Keywords: Manifold Markets prediction tracker, prediction market data, crypto prediction markets, AI forecasts, sports betting markets, political prediction markets, market probability tracker, Manifold Markets API, play money forecasting, crowd forecast aggregator, prediction market volume, resolution date tracker, Manifold liquidity data