Metaculus Forecast Tracker

Metaculus Forecast Tracker — Research-Grade Prediction Markets

Fetch prediction questions and community forecasts from Metaculus, the rigorous scientific forecasting platform trusted by researchers, governments, and policy analysts. Track what the crowd thinks will happen in AI, geopolitics, pandemics, economics, science, and more — with calibration data, forecaster counts, and resolution criteria. No API key required.

Metaculus is not play money — it's used by the CDC, IARPA, and major research institutions to aggregate expert and crowd forecasts on consequential questions.

What You Get

For each question, the actor returns:

• Title, description, resolution criteria
• Community prediction % — the crowd's median probability
• Forecaster count — number of people who made predictions
• Forecast count — total number of individual forecasts made
• Status — open, resolved, or closed
• Resolution — YES/NO/value when resolved, with percentage for binary questions
• Categories and tags — topic classification
• Dates — created, open, close, resolved
• Direct URL to the question on Metaculus

Modes

Mode	Description
search	Keyword search across all questions
recent	Most recently opened questions
closing_soon	Open questions ordered by close date
specific	Fetch by exact question ID(s)

Input Parameters

Parameter	Type	Default	Description
mode	string	"search"	See modes table
query	string	—	Keyword search (e.g. "AGI", "election", "pandemic")
category	string	—	Category slug: "artificial-intelligence", "geopolitics", etc.
status	string	"open"	Filter: "open", "resolved", "all"
orderBy	string	"-activity"	Sort order
limit	integer	30	Max questions (max 500)
questionIds	array	[]	Specific question IDs for direct lookup

Sample Output

{
  "id": 14798,
  "title": "Will GPT-5 be released before January 1, 2026?",
  "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/14798/",
  "question_type": "binary",
  "resolution_criteria": "Resolves YES if OpenAI officially releases a model named GPT-5...",
  "description": "OpenAI has been developing its next flagship language model...",
  "community_prediction_pct": 72.4,
  "forecaster_count": 1847,
  "forecast_count": 8320,
  "vote_score": 241,
  "status": "resolved",
  "is_resolved": true,
  "resolution_value": 100.0,
  "resolution_text": "YES",
  "categories": ["Artificial Intelligence"],
  "tags": ["openai", "gpt", "language-models"],
  "created_at": "2024-03-01T09:00:00Z",
  "close_at": "2025-12-31T23:59:00Z",
  "resolved_at": "2025-08-15T14:22:00Z",
  "fetched_at": "2025-01-15T12:00:00Z"
}

Popular Category Slugs

Slug	Topic
artificial-intelligence	AI, ML, AGI, LLMs
geopolitics	International relations, conflicts
covid-19	Pandemic, vaccines, variants
economics	Recession, inflation, markets
science	Research breakthroughs
technology	Tech products, releases
united-states	US politics and policy
climate	Climate change, energy

Use Cases

• Research aggregation — pull expert consensus on AI timelines, pandemic risks, geopolitical events
• Policy analysis — what does the forecasting community think about regulatory outcomes?
• Calibration datasets — build datasets of predictions vs. resolutions for ML training
• AI safety research — track community forecasts on AI progress milestones
• Trend detection — which categories are generating the most forecasting activity?
• Academic research — study prediction market accuracy and forecaster behavior

About Metaculus

Metaculus was founded in 2015 and has resolved over 15,000 questions, making it one of the most calibrated prediction platforms in existence. Unlike Polymarket or Manifold, Metaculus focuses on epistemically rigorous questions with clear resolution criteria — making it particularly valuable for academic and research use cases.

Pricing

Pay-per-event: $0.001 per question returned (~$0.03 for 30 questions, $0.50 for 500).

FAQ

Is Metaculus real money? No — Metaculus uses points, not real money. Users earn points for accurate forecasts, which builds a track record of calibration.

How calibrated are Metaculus forecasts? Very well calibrated on average. Questions with 80%+ community prediction resolve YES about 80% of the time. Independent research has confirmed strong calibration across thousands of resolved questions.

Can I get historical forecast data? Yes — the status: "resolved" filter returns resolved questions with their resolution_value and community_prediction_pct, enabling calibration analysis.

How often is the data updated? Community predictions update continuously as forecasters submit new predictions. For monitoring active questions, schedule the actor to run daily or hourly.

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• Crypto Regulation Tracker — Regulatory event data for cross-referencing crypto policy forecasts

Feedback

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