Polymarket Prediction Tracker — Volume and Probabilities

What does Polymarket Prediction Tracker do?

Polymarket Prediction Tracker fetches live data from the world's largest decentralized prediction market and enriches each market with over 30 analytical fields — including outcome probabilities, Kelly criterion bet sizing, smart money signals, arbitrage detection, entropy scores, and contrarian opportunity scoring. It returns markets ranked by both 24h trading volume and liquidity depth, covering categories from crypto price predictions and macro economics to politics and sports. No API key is required.

Why use Polymarket Prediction Tracker?

• Real-time probability intelligence: Polymarket prices represent crowd-aggregated probabilities. This Actor surfaces the yes_probability, no_probability, and implied_probability for every active market so you can track consensus shifts as events evolve — essential for event-driven trading and macro research.
• Smart money and arbitrage signals: The Actor detects arbitrage_opportunity_detected (when yes + no prices sum to less than 0.98) and classifies smart_money_signal (bullish/bearish/neutral) based on price movement and volume spikes — giving you edge beyond raw probabilities.
• Contrarian opportunity scoring: A 0–100 contrarian_opportunity_score identifies thinly-traded, strongly-skewed markets where mispricing is most likely — the hunting ground for high-value contrarian bets.
• Crypto market consensus from prediction markets: The summary record includes crypto_market_consensus — an aggregate signal (bullish_leaning, bearish_leaning, neutral) derived from crypto-tagged markets on Polymarket, giving a unique sentiment angle that complements on-chain data.
• Full narrative classification: Every market is labeled with a narrative_category (crypto_price, defi_protocol, regulation, ai_tech, macro_economic, politics, sports, other) and event_impact_on_crypto (high_impact, moderate, low, unrelated) — enabling instant filtering for crypto-relevant macro events.

How to use Polymarket Prediction Tracker

1. Go to the Apify Store and find Polymarket Prediction Tracker.
2. Click Try for free to open the Actor in Apify Console.
3. Configure the input: set topN (default 50, max 200) to control how many markets are returned per sort order, and optionally set category to a slug like crypto, politics, or sports to narrow the results.
4. Click Start — the Actor completes in approximately 10–20 seconds.
5. The first record in the Dataset is the portfolio summary with aggregate statistics (total open interest, most active market, crypto consensus, highest contrarian opportunities). Subsequent records are individual markets sorted by volume (market_by_volume) and liquidity (market_by_liquidity).
6. Export to JSON, CSV, or schedule the Actor for hourly or daily snapshots via Apify Scheduler.

Input

Field	Type	Default	Description
topN	integer	50	Number of top markets to return per sort order (volume and liquidity). Range: 5–200.
category	string	(none)	Optional category slug to filter results. Examples: crypto, politics, sports, economics.

Output

[
  {
    "type": "summary",
    "markets_fetched": 50,
    "total_volume_24h_usd": 4820000.00,
    "total_open_interest_usd": 12400000.00,
    "most_active_market": {
      "question": "Will Bitcoin reach $100K before end of 2026?",
      "volume_24h_usd": 980000.00,
      "slug": "btc-100k-2026"
    },
    "avg_market_efficiency_score": 54.3,
    "crypto_market_consensus": "bullish_leaning",
    "prediction_market_activity": "active",
    "fetched_at": "2026-09-02T09:15:00.000Z"
  },
  {
    "type": "market_by_volume",
    "rank": 1,
    "question": "Will Bitcoin reach $100K before end of 2026?",
    "yes_probability": 0.74,
    "no_probability": 0.26,
    "implied_probability": 0.74,
    "kelly_criterion": 0.48,
    "price_momentum": "rising",
    "category_tag": "crypto",
    "resolution_countdown_days": 121.3,
    "calibration_score": 0.52,
    "entropy_score": 0.8631,
    "expected_value": 0.0,
    "volume_24h_usd": 980000.00,
    "liquidity_usd": 2100000.00,
    "market_efficiency_score": 71.8,
    "implied_probability_edge": {"edge": 0.24, "conviction": "moderate"},
    "arbitrage_opportunity_detected": false,
    "smart_money_signal": "bullish",
    "days_until_resolution": {"days": 121, "classification": "medium_term"},
    "market_type": "crypto",
    "liquidity_tier": "deep",
    "contrarian_signal": true,
    "consensus_strength": "clear_favorite",
    "smart_money_vs_crowd": "aligned",
    "event_impact_on_crypto": "high_impact",
    "resolution_urgency": "long_dated",
    "liquidity_quality": "adequate",
    "narrative_category": "crypto_price",
    "contrarian_opportunity_score": 25.0,
    "slug": "btc-100k-2026",
    "fetched_at": "2026-09-02T09:15:00.000Z"
  }
]

Data fields

Field	Description
question	The prediction market question text
yes_probability	Current implied probability for the YES outcome (0–1)
no_probability	Current implied probability for the NO outcome (0–1)
implied_probability	YES probability rounded to 2 decimal places
kelly_criterion	Kelly fraction for optimal position sizing (0–0.5); 2p-1 formula
price_momentum	Short-term price direction: rising, falling, stable
category_tag	Keyword-classified category: politics, crypto, sports, economics, science, other
resolution_countdown_days	Days remaining until the market resolves
calibration_score	Brier-style calibration proxy (0=maximum conviction, 1=maximum uncertainty)
entropy_score	Shannon entropy in bits (max 1.0 at p=0.5; min 0.0 at certainty)
expected_value	EV of a YES bet at current price; positive suggests potential YES mispricing
volume_concentration_pct	Share of lifetime volume traded in the last 24h (high = recently trending)
liquidity_depth_ratio	Liquidity-to-24h-volume ratio (high = deep, stable market)
market_age_days	Days since the market was created
market_efficiency_score	0–100 composite score from liquidity, volume, and price balance
implied_probability_edge	Distance from 50% coin-flip + conviction label (uncertain/moderate/strong)
arbitrage_opportunity_detected	true if yes + no prices sum to < 0.98 (price gap exists)
smart_money_signal	bullish, bearish, or neutral based on price trend and volume spike
days_until_resolution	Days until resolution + classification (imminent/near_term/medium_term/long_term)
market_type	politics, crypto, sports, economics, other
liquidity_tier	deep (>$100K), liquid (>$10K), thin (>$1K), micro (<$1K)
contrarian_signal	true if YES probability differs >20pp from 50% (potential contrarian opportunity)
consensus_strength	strong_consensus, clear_favorite, contested, toss_up, inverted_favorite
smart_money_vs_crowd	smart_money_contrarian, aligned, or unclear
event_impact_on_crypto	Predicted crypto market relevance: high_impact, moderate, low, unrelated
resolution_urgency	imminent (<24h), this_week (<7d), this_month (<30d), long_dated (>30d)
liquidity_quality	deep (>$1M), adequate (>$100K), thin (>$10K), illiquid (<$10K)
narrative_category	Detailed classification: crypto_price, defi_protocol, regulation, ai_tech, macro_economic, politics, sports, other
contrarian_opportunity_score	0–100 score for potential mispricing (thin market + strong consensus + price stagnation)

Cost estimation

This Actor uses Pay-Per-Event (PPE) pricing at $0.005 flat per run, regardless of the number of markets fetched.

Scenario	Runs	Total Cost
Daily monitoring (1 run/day)	30	$0.15/month
Hourly polling during key events	720	$3.60/month
Weekly research snapshot	4	$0.02/month

FAQ

Q: What is Polymarket and why do its prices matter? A: Polymarket is a decentralized prediction market where real money is wagered on event outcomes. Because participants have financial skin in the game, Polymarket prices are generally considered better probability estimates than opinion polls. A YES price of $0.74 means the market assigns a 74% probability to the event happening.

Q: Can I filter for only crypto-related markets? A: Yes. Pass "category": "crypto" in the input to filter by the Polymarket crypto category tag. The event_impact_on_crypto field also lets you filter results post-run for markets with high_impact or moderate crypto relevance.

Q: How often should I run this Actor for trading purposes? A: For event-driven trading, run it hourly during active news cycles. For macro research, once or twice daily is sufficient. The Actor is stateless — each run returns a fresh snapshot from the Polymarket API.

Disclaimer: Prediction market probabilities are crowd-sourced estimates and may not reflect actual event outcomes. This data is for informational and research purposes only. Nothing in this output constitutes financial, investment, or legal advice. Betting on prediction markets may be regulated or restricted in your jurisdiction.

Keywords: Polymarket prediction tracker, prediction market probabilities, event-driven trading, Polymarket API, crypto prediction markets, outcome probabilities, smart money signals, arbitrage detection, contrarian betting, prediction market data scraper

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Related actors

• Metaculus Forecasts Tracker — Metaculus community forecasts alongside Polymarket market-price probabilities
• Crypto News Aggregator — News events driving Polymarket price movements
• Manifold Markets Tracker — Manifold play-money prediction markets to cross-reference with Polymarket real-money odds

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