Poland Housing Price Gap – developer asking prices vs real transaction prices

How much above the real market are developers asking? For any place in Poland this Actor puts two official sources side by side:

• asking prices from developers' mandatory daily price lists (dane.gov.pl), and
• prices actually paid, from notarial deeds in the Real Estate Price Register (RCN),

and returns one clear report: the median price per m² on each side, the gap in percent, the same comparison by apartment size, and how confident the comparison is.

Why it matters

• Buyers: know how much room there is to negotiate before you talk to the sales office.
• Investors: spot areas where new builds are priced far above resale.
• Developers: check whether your price list is ahead of the market.
• Analysts and media: a ready indicator for any city or district.

Example

Input:

{ "location": "Kraków", "searchArea": "whole_city", "monthsBack": 12 }

Report (shortened, real output from October 2026 – the run took about 15 seconds):

{
  "recordType": "gapReport",
  "medianPricePerM2Pln": {
    "developerOffers": 15762,
    "primaryMarketTransactions": 15009,
    "secondaryMarketTransactions": 14833
  },
  "gapOfferVsPrimaryPct": 5.0,
  "gapOfferVsSecondaryPct": 6.3,
  "counts": { "developerOffers": 16406, "primaryTransactions": 5284, "secondaryTransactions": 4929 },
  "byAreaBucket": { "80+": { "gapOfferVsPrimaryPct": 15.6 } },
  "confidence": "high",
  "interpretation": [
    "Developers currently ask 5.0% more per m² than the median primary-market transaction price recorded in this area in the last 12 months."
  ]
}

Markets differ a lot: in the very centre of Wrocław (1.5 km around Świdnicka 10) the same report showed asking prices 57% above recent primary-market deeds, and in Gdańsk 31%.

Pricing (pay per event)

Event	Price
Gap report (charged only when both sides have data)	$0.49

How to read it

• gapOfferVsPrimaryPct – today's asking prices vs prices paid for new apartments (primary market).
• gapOfferVsSecondaryPct – new-build asking prices vs resale transactions.
• byAreaBucket – the same comparison for <40, 40–60, 60–80 and 80+ m², so a mix of small and big flats does not distort the result.
• confidence – high (30+ records on both sides), medium (10+), low (fewer).

Primary-market deeds are often signed at handover, so transaction prices can lag behind current price lists – the gap is partly the market moving. That is exactly what the report helps you see.

Related Actors

• Poland Real Estate Transaction Prices – area statistics and the list of deeds for any location.
• Poland New-Build Apartment Prices – every developer offer around an address.
• Poland Apartment Valuation (AVM) – an estimated value for any apartment.

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Po polsku

Luka cenowa: ceny ofertowe deweloperów a ceny transakcyjne z aktów notarialnych. O ile cenniki deweloperów (dane.gov.pl) różnią się od cen, po których naprawdę sprzedano mieszkania w okolicy (Rejestr Cen Nieruchomości, RCN)? Jeden raport dla dowolnego adresu albo całego miasta: mediany cen za m², różnica w procentach względem rynku pierwotnego i wtórnego, porównanie według metrażu i ocena wiarygodności. Przydatne przy negocjacjach z deweloperem i analizie rynku.