Kalshi Weather Markets – Temperature Odds & NWS Data

Every open Kalshi daily high and low temperature market, one row per bracket, side by side with the National Weather Service data the market settles on. Built for weather traders, bot builders and researchers who want the odds and the weather in one table.

What you get

• Every bracket of every open daily high and low temperature market in 24 US cities: bid, ask, last price, volume, open interest.
• Fair odds: the implied probability with Kalshi's overround removed across the brackets, so they add up to 100 %.
• The settlement station each market resolves on (e.g. KMDW, Chicago Midway), and for that station:
  • the NWS forecast high or low for the day,
  • the temperature measured so far that day,
  • ruled_out_by_observations: brackets that are already impossible, because a day's high can only rise and its low only fall,
  • the NWS daily climate report value and the yes/no it gives this bracket, once published, often before Kalshi settles.

Cities: Atlanta, Austin, Boston, Chicago, Dallas, Denver, Houston, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, Louisville, Miami, Minneapolis, New Orleans, New York City, Newark, Oklahoma City, Philadelphia, Phoenix, San Antonio, San Diego, San Francisco, Seattle, Trenton and Washington DC, as long as Kalshi lists them.

Example output row

A real row:

{
  "city": "Miami",
  "temperature": "high",
  "date": "2026-11-11",
  "bracket": "85° to 86°",
  "yes_bid": 0.69,
  "yes_ask": 0.71,
  "fair_probability": 0.6829,
  "volume": 2772.2,
  "station": "KMIA",
  "nws_forecast_f": 85,
  "observed_so_far_f": 79,
  "observed_at": "2026-11-11T06:20:00+00:00",
  "ruled_out_by_observations": false,
  "nws_report_f": null,
  "nws_report_result": null,
  "market_ticker": "KXHIGHMIA-26NOV11-B85.5"
}

Pricing

Pay per event, no subscription:

• $0.80 per 1,000 brackets ($0.0008 per row), weather data included.
• $0.001 per run start.

Examples: the pre-filled run (daily highs in 5 cities, about 48 brackets) costs about $0.04. Every high and low market in all 24 cities, about 470 brackets, costs about $0.38. Error rows are never charged.

Input

Field	What it does
cities	City names as Kalshi writes them. Empty = all cities.
temperature	high (default), low or both.
includeWeather	Forecast, measurements and the NWS daily report. On by default.

Schedule it every 10 to 30 minutes during the trading day to follow the odds against the measurements.

Good to know

• Kalshi settles these markets on The Weather Company's value for the station. The NWS daily climate report for the same station (nws_report_f) usually matches it but is not the settlement source. The climate day runs from midnight to midnight local standard time, also during daylight saving time, and so does observed_so_far_f.
• observed_so_far_f comes from the station's regular readings. The daily report can be a degree off them, so ruled_out_by_observations only says true with 1 °F of margin. It is a strong hint, not a settlement; trade at your own risk.
• nws_report_result is filled once the NWS publishes the final report for that day, usually the next morning.
• fair_probability is left empty when a bracket has no quote, and is rough when the spread is wide.
• City names match from the start of a word, and LA, NYC, DC, SF and Vegas work too.
• Not affiliated with Kalshi or the National Weather Service. Data is from their public APIs.

More tools from Rowfeed

• Kalshi API – every Kalshi market, with prices, volume and optional order books.
• METAR Decoder API – NWS weather observations as typed fields.
• Prediction Market API – Kalshi and Polymarket in one call and one format.
• Polymarket API – live odds, bid/ask, volume and liquidity.
• Google Sheets Export – send the results of any run to a Google Sheet.