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MLB Futures Bet Sizing with Quarter Kelly

Sizes MLB futures positions instead of just flagging them. Quarter-Kelly stakes on a 10,000 bankroll, capped at 3 percent per position and 9 percent across the whole book, so at most three bets fit. Swap in your own market prices and the output returns the stake, the uncapped Kelly fraction and a flag when the portfolio limit bites.

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MLB Playoff Odds API — Monte Carlo Simulator & Value Bets
MLB Playoff Odds API — Monte Carlo Simulator & Value Betscommodus67/mlb-playoff-odds-monte-carlo
Team
Model playoff %
Market playoff %
Playoff edge
+5 fields
Text
Number
Boolean
List
Object

Input

Monte Carlo iterations:20000
Regression to the mean, in games:70
Weight on run differential:0.6
Home field advantage (log-odds):0.16
Strength uncertainty:0.1
Minimum edge to flag value:0.03
Bankroll for position sizing:10000
Max stake per position:0.03
Max total portfolio exposure:0.09
Market probabilities (optional)
team:New York Yankees+1
market:playoff+1
impliedProbability:0.92+1

Output fields

Team
Model playoff %
Market playoff %
Playoff edge
Fee per contract
Net EV
Model division %
Value
Recommendation

How it works

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The MLB Playoff Odds API — Monte Carlo Simulator & Value Bets Actor is ready to run with the inputs already set for "MLB Futures Bet Sizing with Quarter Kelly". Sign up or log in and you'll land in Apify Console with a copy of this exact task.

Start the "MLB Futures Bet Sizing with Quarter Kelly" task

The MLB Playoff Odds API — Monte Carlo Simulator & Value Bets Actor will start running based on the input automatically. You can also change all the input fields, like monte carlo iterations, regression to the mean, in games, and more, to match your specific use case.

Receive the "MLB Futures Bet Sizing with Quarter Kelly" output

Monitor the progress in real time. You will be notified as soon as your dataset is complete and ready for review. Each result includes data such as team, model playoff %, market playoff %, and more.

Integrate into your workflow

The final output is delivered in JSON, CSV, or Excel format, ready to be plugged into your workflow. You can also run the "MLB Futures Bet Sizing with Quarter Kelly" task via API.

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