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MLB Playoff Odds from Run Differential Only

Runs the model on run differential alone, ignoring the win-loss column entirely. Runs scored and runs allowed predict future wins better than the record does, because a one-run win and a blowout count the same in the standings. Compare this table with the default blend to see which teams the standings are flattering.

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MLB Playoff Odds API — Monte Carlo Simulator & Value Bets
MLB Playoff Odds API — Monte Carlo Simulator & Value Betscommodus67/mlb-playoff-odds-monte-carlo
Division
Team
Projected wins
Division %
+2 fields
Text
Number
Boolean
List
Object

Input

Monte Carlo iterations:20000
Regression to the mean, in games:70
Weight on run differential:1
Home field advantage (log-odds):0.16
Strength uncertainty:0.1
Minimum edge to flag value:0.05
Bankroll for position sizing:1000
Max stake per position:0.02
Max total portfolio exposure:0.06
Market probabilities (optional)

Output fields

Division
Team
Projected wins
Division %
Wild card %
Playoff %

How it works

Sign up on Apify or log in

The MLB Playoff Odds API — Monte Carlo Simulator & Value Bets Actor is ready to run with the inputs already set for "MLB Playoff Odds from Run Differential Only". Sign up or log in and you'll land in Apify Console with a copy of this exact task.

Start the "MLB Playoff Odds from Run Differential Only" task

The MLB Playoff Odds API — Monte Carlo Simulator & Value Bets Actor will start running based on the input automatically. You can also change all the input fields, like monte carlo iterations, regression to the mean, in games, and more, to match your specific use case.

Receive the "MLB Playoff Odds from Run Differential Only" output

Monitor the progress in real time. You will be notified as soon as your dataset is complete and ready for review. Each result includes data such as division, team, projected wins, and more.

Integrate into your workflow

The final output is delivered in JSON, CSV, or Excel format, ready to be plugged into your workflow. You can also run the "MLB Playoff Odds from Run Differential Only" task via API.

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