MLB Value Bets vs Live Kalshi Prediction Market Prices
Created by
ELIO LIBERATORE
Monte Carlo playoff odds for all 30 MLB teams compared against live Kalshi contract prices. De-vigged edge, fee-adjusted EV and Kelly sizing.
MLB Playoff Odds Monte Carlo Simulatorcommodus67/mlb-playoff-odds-monte-carlo
Team
Model playoff %
Market playoff %
Playoff edge
+5 fieldsTextNumberBooleanListObject
Input
Monte Carlo iterations:20000
Regression to the mean, in games:70
Weight on run differential:0.6
Home field advantage (log-odds):0.16
Strength uncertainty:0.1
Minimum edge to flag value:0.03
Market probabilities (optional)
team:Seattle Mariners+5
market:playoff+5
impliedProbability:0.48+5
Output fields
Team
Model playoff %
Market playoff %
Playoff edge
Fee per contract
Net EV
Model division %
Value
Recommendation
Sign up on Apify01
Create your Apify account to access the MLB Playoff Odds Monte Carlo Simulator.
Start the run02
The Actor will start running based on the input automatically.
Receive the output03
Monitor the progress in real-time. You will be notified as soon as your dataset is complete and ready for review.
Integrate into your workflow04
The final output is delivered in JSON, CSV, or Excel format, ready to be plugged into your workflow.
