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NFL Futures Bet Sizing with Quarter Kelly

Size NFL futures positions with quarter-Kelly on a $5,000 bankroll, capped at 1% per bet and 4% total exposure. Bets fill best-edge-first; qualifying bets beyond the ceiling come back with a zero stake and a capped flag, so you can see exactly what was dropped and why.

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NFL Playoff Odds API - Monte Carlo Simulator
NFL Playoff Odds API - Monte Carlo Simulatorcommodus67/nfl-playoff-odds-api-monte-carlo-simulator
Team
Model playoff %
Market playoff %
Playoff edge
+5 fields
Text
Number
Boolean
List
Object

Input

Monte Carlo iterations:20000
Regression to the mean, in games:6
Weight on point differential:0.65
Home field advantage (log-odds):0.2
Strength uncertainty:0.16
Probability of a tie:0.004
Minimum edge to flag value:0.05
Bankroll for position sizing:5000
Max stake per position:0.01
Max total portfolio exposure:0.04
Market probabilities (optional)
team:Kansas City Chiefs+5
market:playoff+5
impliedProbability:0.82+5

Output fields

Team
Model playoff %
Market playoff %
Playoff edge
Value
Kelly uncapped
Stake % of bankroll
Suggested stake
Capped

How it works

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The NFL Playoff Odds API - Monte Carlo Simulator Actor is ready to run with the inputs already set for "NFL Futures Bet Sizing with Quarter Kelly". Sign up or log in and you'll land in Apify Console with a copy of this exact task.

Start the "NFL Futures Bet Sizing with Quarter Kelly" task

The NFL Playoff Odds API - Monte Carlo Simulator Actor will start running based on the input automatically. You can also change all the input fields, like monte carlo iterations, regression to the mean, in games, and more, to match your specific use case.

Receive the "NFL Futures Bet Sizing with Quarter Kelly" output

Monitor the progress in real time. You will be notified as soon as your dataset is complete and ready for review. Each result includes data such as team, model playoff %, market playoff %, and more.

Integrate into your workflow

The final output is delivered in JSON, CSV, or Excel format, ready to be plugged into your workflow. You can also run the "NFL Futures Bet Sizing with Quarter Kelly" task via API.

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