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NFL Futures Bet Sizing with Quarter Kelly
Created by
ELIO LIBERATORE
Size NFL futures positions with quarter-Kelly on a $5,000 bankroll, capped at 1% per bet and 4% total exposure. Bets fill best-edge-first; qualifying bets beyond the ceiling come back with a zero stake and a capped flag, so you can see exactly what was dropped and why.
NFL Playoff Odds API - Monte Carlo Simulatorcommodus67/nfl-playoff-odds-api-monte-carlo-simulator
Team
Model playoff %
Market playoff %
Playoff edge
+5 fieldsTextNumberBooleanListObject
Input
Monte Carlo iterations:20000
Regression to the mean, in games:6
Weight on point differential:0.65
Home field advantage (log-odds):0.2
Strength uncertainty:0.16
Probability of a tie:0.004
Minimum edge to flag value:0.05
Bankroll for position sizing:5000
Max stake per position:0.01
Max total portfolio exposure:0.04
Market probabilities (optional)
team:Kansas City Chiefs+5
market:playoff+5
impliedProbability:0.82+5
Output fields
Team
Model playoff %
Market playoff %
Playoff edge
Value
Kelly uncapped
Stake % of bankroll
Suggested stake
Capped
Sign up on Apify01
Create your Apify account to access the NFL Playoff Odds API - Monte Carlo Simulator.
Start the run02
The Actor will start running based on the input automatically.
Receive the output03
Monitor the progress in real-time. You will be notified as soon as your dataset is complete and ready for review.
Integrate into your workflow04
The final output is delivered in JSON, CSV, or Excel format, ready to be plugged into your workflow.
