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NFL Playoff Odds Backtest 2025 Season
Created by
ELIO LIBERATORE
Replay the finished 2025 NFL season 20,000 times and see what the model gave every team: division, wild card, playoff and No. 1 seed probabilities plus projected win totals. Score the model against what actually happened before you trust it on the current season.
NFL Playoff Odds API - Monte Carlo Simulatorcommodus67/nfl-playoff-odds-api-monte-carlo-simulator
Division
Team
Projected wins
Division %
+3 fieldsTextNumberBooleanListObject
Input
Monte Carlo iterations:20000
Season year (optional):2025
Regression to the mean, in games:6
Weight on point differential:0.65
Home field advantage (log-odds):0.2
Strength uncertainty:0.16
Probability of a tie:0.004
Minimum edge to flag value:0.05
Bankroll for position sizing:1000
Max stake per position:0.02
Max total portfolio exposure:0.06
Market probabilities (optional)
Output fields
Division
Team
Projected wins
Division %
Wild card %
Playoff %
Top seed %
Sign up on Apify01
Create your Apify account to access the NFL Playoff Odds API - Monte Carlo Simulator.
Start the run02
The Actor will start running based on the input automatically.
Receive the output03
Monitor the progress in real-time. You will be notified as soon as your dataset is complete and ready for review.
Integrate into your workflow04
The final output is delivered in JSON, CSV, or Excel format, ready to be plugged into your workflow.
