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NFL Playoff Odds Without the Uncertainty Adjustment
Created by
ELIO LIBERATORE
Turn off the talent redraw and treat each team's estimated strength as exactly right. The probabilities come back far more confident than they should be, which is the point: compare this run with the default to see how much of the spread is real signal and how much is a 17-game sample.
NFL Playoff Odds API - Monte Carlo Simulatorcommodus67/nfl-playoff-odds-api-monte-carlo-simulator
Division
Team
Projected wins
Division %
+3 fieldsTextNumberBooleanListObject
Input
Monte Carlo iterations:20000
Regression to the mean, in games:6
Weight on point differential:0.65
Home field advantage (log-odds):0.2
Strength uncertainty:0
Probability of a tie:0.004
Minimum edge to flag value:0.05
Bankroll for position sizing:1000
Max stake per position:0.02
Max total portfolio exposure:0.06
Market probabilities (optional)
Output fields
Division
Team
Projected wins
Division %
Wild card %
Playoff %
Top seed %
Sign up on Apify01
Create your Apify account to access the NFL Playoff Odds API - Monte Carlo Simulator.
Start the run02
The Actor will start running based on the input automatically.
Receive the output03
Monitor the progress in real-time. You will be notified as soon as your dataset is complete and ready for review.
Integrate into your workflow04
The final output is delivered in JSON, CSV, or Excel format, ready to be plugged into your workflow.
