NFL Playoff Odds from Point Differential Only

Created by

ELIO LIBERATORE

Actor

NFL Playoff Odds API - Monte Carlo Simulator

Ignore the win-loss record entirely and build every team's strength from points scored and allowed. Point differential predicts future wins better than the record does over a 17-game season, so this run shows which teams the standings are flattering and which they are hiding.

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NFL Playoff Odds API - Monte Carlo Simulatorcommodus67/nfl-playoff-odds-api-monte-carlo-simulator

Team

+8 fields

Input

Monte Carlo iterations:20000

Regression to the mean, in games:6

Weight on point differential:1

Home field advantage (log-odds):0.2

Strength uncertainty:0.16

Probability of a tie:0.004

Minimum edge to flag value:0.05

Bankroll for position sizing:1000

Max stake per position:0.02

Max total portfolio exposure:0.06

Market probabilities (optional)

Output fields

Team

Remaining

Diff

Actual win %

Pythagorean win %

True talent win %

How it works

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The NFL Playoff Odds API - Monte Carlo Simulator Actor is ready to run with the inputs already set for "NFL Playoff Odds from Point Differential Only". Sign up or log in and you'll land in Apify Console with a copy of this exact task.

Start the "NFL Playoff Odds from Point Differential Only" task

The NFL Playoff Odds API - Monte Carlo Simulator Actor will start running based on the input automatically. You can also change all the input fields, like monte carlo iterations, regression to the mean, in games, and more, to match your specific use case.

Receive the "NFL Playoff Odds from Point Differential Only" output

Monitor the progress in real time. You will be notified as soon as your dataset is complete and ready for review. Each result includes data such as team, GP, w, and more.

Integrate into your workflow

The final output is delivered in JSON, CSV, or Excel format, ready to be plugged into your workflow. You can also run the "NFL Playoff Odds from Point Differential Only" task via API.